RBNZ set for change on new mandate

7 November, 2017

The New Zealand government continues to be in the eye of traders as the current changes to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand look to be fast tracked. So far what we know is that the focus will not only be on inflation, but almost full employment for the NZ economy. This should come as no surprise given the recent elections and the want for the government to change to focus on this. Additionally, there is the need for a change on current FX policy which could have far reaching impacts on the NZ economy, as the current minor party (NZ first) wants to see the RBNZ intervene in FX markets to help drive export markets and keep the NZD lower. This has been seen as futile in the past given the RBNZ being quite small compared to world markets, so it could cause minor issues going forward. Either way markets are not currently upbeat regarding the prospects of the NZDUSD, but I believe the NZD is starting to stabilise compared to other currencies and is showing the odd signs of the bulls back in the market.

So far the NZDUSD bull have managed to claw back a considerable amount of ground in the face of uncertainty in the NZ economy. For me resistance at 0.6960 is the current strong level that is holding back any further gains on the charts, the reason being is that no one knows the current direction of the NZ market after elections. If it was positive then I would expect a jump to 0.7029, but a potential slow down shortly after this jump. In the event we did see minor falls on the charts then support could be found at 0.6891 and 0.6834 respectively, with the ability to go lower as markets are considerably more bearish after the recent election.

Oil has been one of the big jumpers on the charts as markets have been quick to worry about the situation in Saudi Arabia recently. The anti corruption crackdown has taken a few high profile heads, and the markets are worried about the state of play from the world's largest oil producer. Certainly, there have been drawdown's on global oil supplies, but the shakeup of affairs could have the largest impact in the long run and drive oil prices higher in the short term.

So far Oil bulls have charged forward and knocked out support at 56.17 as the oil markets continued to run higher. Resistance level can be found at 59.08 and 62.12 on the charts with the potential to go higher if more political uncertainty presents itself. There is also the potential for charts to dip lower and support can be found at 56.17 and 50.21 as the market looks to drift lower as news looks more promising potentially. 


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