Markets in Details: 12 December 2018

12 December, 2018

News

  • On Tuesday, UK PM Theresa May pulled Brexit from the voting in the House of Commons, aiming to seek concession from Brussels on the issue of preventing a hard border in Ireland. EC President Tusk yesterday, however, said the “backstop” issue is not open for discussion.
  • This week the ECJ ruled that the UK is at liberty to withdraw its notification to leave the bloc, and effectively end Brexit, without first gaining consent from other EU members.

The focus of attention

  • European currencies will be closely watched today given the number of political issues that are fueling global growth concerns:
  • Huawei’s detained CFO is requesting freedom due to health issues–she was recently denied bail and investors fear this could escalate the U.S.-China trade war.
  • UK will not see Brexit decided today as Theresa May will go back to Brussels to seek assurance that the UK will not be forever tied to EU customs rules–a near impossible feat as the border issue is not open for discussion according to Donald Tusk, the EC President.
  • Eurozone investor confidence declined for a fourth month suggesting economic slowdown.

Expected events

  • 9.30 GMT UK will release the Average Earnings Index, Claimant Count Change, Employment Change and Unemployment figures.
  • 10:00 GMT Germany will release the ZEW Economic Sentiment for December.
  • 13:30 GMT U.S. will release PPI data for November.
  • 15:00 GMT U.S. will release the JOLTs report for October.
  • 21:30 GMT U.S. will release the API Weekly Crude Oil Stock report.

Technical Analysis 

  • EUR USD The recent uptrend move to 1.1442 quickly failed and produced no meaningful retracement, although the pair remains above its short-term downtrend line. Expect the next level of support at 1.1350 to be tested this week.
  • Dow Jones On Monday the Dow dropped to 23881 before recovering to 24417 by the close. Early Tuesday trading is flat with no directional bias on the one-hour chart and the trend is mostly flat. The short-term view is flat to bearish.
  • GBP USD dropped sharply on Monday and was not able to find support until 1.2506. Early Tuesday trading is flat with no directional bias on the one-hour chart and the trend is mostly flat. The short-term view is flat to bearish for GBP USD.

 


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