Markets in Details: 19 December 2018

19 December, 2018


  • German business confidence slumped below expectations and reached the lowest reading since December 2016, after the Ifo Business Climate reading showed waning confidence among manufacturers, service providers and wholesalers & retailers.
  • U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin confirmed that trade talks with China would only resume in January and no formal discussions before then. 

The focus of attention

  • Markets await the announcement from the US Federal Reserve Bank on Wednesday to see whether the expected 25bp increase will materialise. The rate hike is expected to throw financial markets into turmoil which is already fearful of trade and geopolitical tension, a no-deal Brexit, weakening crude prices, and lower growth forecasts.

Expected events

  • 07:00 GMT Germany will release its November PPI.
  • 09:30 GMT UK will release the CPI, PPI and HPI.
  • 11:00 GMT UK will release CBI Industrial Trends Orders.
  • 15:00 GMT U.S. will release Existing Home Sales numbers.
  • 15:30 GMT U.S. will release the latest Crude Oil Inventories data.
  • 19:00 GMT U.S. will release the Interest Rate Decision.

Technical Analysis 

  • GBP USD Early price action on Wednesday is the second breakout attempt past the 1.2660 resistance. The first attempt failed on early Tuesday within two hours of reaching its peak. The pair may consolidate in the short-term given RSI is just above 70. It has found support at 1.2635 along the way.
  • Dow Jones The bearish price pattern remains the dominant trend fo the Dow. Attempts at breakout usually fail within 24 hours and the asset has found support at 23525. Expect more sideways trading before seeing a breakout past 24000 over the next week or two.
  • EUR USD The breakout from the 1.1370 resistance failed on late Tuesday though the pair was able to climb back to the 76.39% retracement level by the close. Early action on Wednesday show the pair will add to the gains as the breakout did not fail immediately.

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