Markets in Details: 11 January 2019

11 January, 2019

News

  • China announced weaker than expected inflation numbers on Thursday sending European markets and U.S. stock futures lower. The lack of specifics from the mid-level trade talks between U.S. and China also meant uncertainty is still driving negative sentiment.
  • There was little in way of progress to ending the partial government shutdown currently in effect in the U.S. President Trump walked out of a meeting with congressional leaders on Wednesday and remain adamant that Mexico will fund the U.S.-Mexico wall in his speech at the southern border, contrary to all evidence against it.
  • Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks at a QA session and the Fed’s December minutes show a more cautious position to tightening in light of heavy market losses the prior week.

The focus of attention

  • Markets are awaiting for the latest GDP and CPI reading from the UK on Friday, as well as the Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count report from the U.S.

Expected events

  • All times are GMT.
  • 9.30 UK will release GDP, November Industrial Production, Manufacturing Production and Trade Balance data.
  • 13.30 UK will release CPI for December.
  • 18.00 U.S. will release the Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count report.

Technical Analysis 

  • On Thursday, EUR USD peaked at 1.1569 before pulling back to 1.1517, forming a minor support level there. The pair has not traded above 1.1490 since November and is looking to maintain Wednesday’s breakout past this level. It would not be a bullish scenario if it traded back down towards 1.1490.
  • GBP USD remains in a downtrend after hitting resistance at 1.2803 on Wednesday. The pair has given up more than 25% of its gains in 2019 and may test the 1.2707 support level this week (expect further weakness if it fails).
  • Dow Jones The big picture on the Dow is that it has retraced 50 to 60 percent of its prior decline and appears to be up against a momentum resistance at around RSI 60. Expect a snapback if this resistance holds.


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