Market Remains On US-China Trade Deal

9 May, 2019

The US and China trade war took a new turn yesterday. President Trump tweeted that Chinese delegation would be coming to the US to make a deal. This kept the risk-off sentiment in check.

However, the Washington administration was also preparing the paperwork to formally raise the tariffs from 10% to 25%, effective Friday. Meanwhile, data from China showed that the trade surplus for April was $13.84 billion. This was lower than the estimates of $35 billion.

Euro Muted to German Industrial Production

Industrial production in Germany grew at a pace of 0.5% on the month in March. This beat estimates of a 0.5% decline for the same period. Data for February was revised lower from 0.7% initially to 0.4%. ECB President Mario Draghi also gave a speech where he said that the central bank “will not accept” defeat on the inflation target.

No Respite to the EURUSD Sideways Range

The common currency continues to trade flat within the levels of 1.1140 and 1.1226. As long as price maintains this range, we expect to see no major shifts to the currency pair. The bias could, however, tip to the upside if we see a breakout above 1.1126. To the downside, price continues to trade near the previous lows and unless the euro breaks down below 1.1140 further declines are unlikely in the near term. [EURUSD]

Oil Posts Modest Gains as Crude Inventories Fall

Crude oil prices posted modest gains on the day on Wednesday, rising 0.89%. The weekly crude oil inventory report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) was released. US stockpiles fell by 3.9 million barrels to 446.6 million last week. Oil prices also got a boost after China’s oil imports touched 10.64 million barrels for April.

WTI Likely to Correct Higher in the Short Term

Crude oil prices have settled into a range within 62.85 resistance and 60.33 support. However, the short term charts indicate that oil prices could breakout higher to test the 62.85 region. This could mark a modest correction to the upside amid the medium term bearish outlook. A reversal near 62.85 would set oil prices on the path to test the lower support near 57.50.

Gold Retreats from a Three Week High

The precious metal was looking bullish on Wednesday, fueled by the uncertainty due to the US and China trade wars. However, after gold prices rose to touch a three-week high, prices retreated sharply into Wednesday’s close. The pullback came after President Trump’s recent tweets on China.

Gold Settles Back into the Range

XAUUSD tested the highs of 1290, a resistance level that was well within sight. However, the pullback from this level has sent gold prices back to trade within the range of 1285 and 1273. A bearish follow-through is required from here in order for gold prices to extend declines lower. In the near term, any rallies to the 1285 level could likely be met by more selling. Watch for a break below 1273 for gold to continue its descent.

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