USD/CAD sticks to modest gains

14 June, 2019

A modest pull-back in Oil prices undermine Loonie and helped regain traction. The USD continues to attract some safe-haven flows and remained supportive. Traders now eye US monthly retail sales data for some short-term opportunities.

The USD/CAD pair is currently placed at the top end of its weekly trading range, with bulls still awaiting a sustained move back above 100-day SMA.

After yesterday's modest pullback and a subsequent bounce from the 1.3300 handle, the pair managed to regain some positive traction on the last trading day of the week and was supported by a combination of factors. 

Crude Oil prices failed to capitalize on the previous session's sharp gains - led by worries over disruptions to oil supply and acted as a key factor undermining demand for the commodity-linked currency - Loonie.

Attacks on two oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman stoked fears of reduced crude flows through one of the world's key shipping routes, though weaker global demand forecasts kept a lid on any strong follow-through rise.

The latest negative outlook came from International Energy Agency (IEA), which revised down its 2019 demand growth estimate by 100,000 bpd to 1.2 million bpd and exerted some fresh pressure on Crude Oil prices.

Meanwhile, the incoming softer US economic data - including last Friday's May monthly jobs report, coupled with slowing inflation further reinforced expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates by the end of this year. 

However, the fact that the move is largely priced in, investors seemed reluctant to carry aggressive US Dollar bearish bets heading into next week’s FOMC policy meeting, which further collaborated to the pair's modest uptick.

Despite the supporting forces, bulls lacked any strong conviction and now look forward to the US monthly retail sales figures for the required momentum to finally make it through 100-day SMA immediate strong resistance.


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