USDCHF remain bearish

29 December, 2016

Sell below 1.0278. Stop loss at 1.0321. Take profit at 1.0200.

Reason for the trading strategy (technically):

We remain bearish below 1.0278 resistance (Horizontal overlap resistance) for a further push down to 1.0200 resistance (Fibonacci projection, Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support).

Stochastic (21,5,3) is turning down from an area of resistance and displays bearish divergence vs price signalling a reversal is impending.

Reason for the trading strategy (fundamentally):

The major news item affecting USD today is the U.S. Advance Goods Trade Balance. A trade deficit is bad news for the dollar, as it means foreign goods are in demand. Those goods are ultimately purchased with foreign currency which creates a higher demand for foreign currency. A trade surplus, on the other hand, means that foreign consumers are buying more American goods. This results in demand for the dollar. We are expecting a smaller deficit from -$62.0b to -$61.5b which means a stronger USD. This goes against our bearish USDCHF view today so it is best to exercise caution on this trade.


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