Forex Technical Analysis USD/JPY 2014-02-13

14 February, 2014

Finally we came out of such long out-of-market position. We have fixed a profit according to the yesterday’s analysis of USD/CAD – 26 points. A position opening - 1.36148, a profit -1.35892. Today will bring an interesting event – at 14:30 (CET, server time) US Bureau of Statistics will release Core retail sales for the current month. That’s a basic indicator of American economy state. It doesn’t include a volatile transport component and that’s why it gives a stable representation of the consumer markets trends. A forecast of Core retail sales change is 0.1%. It is 0.6% less then in the previous month. If an actual value falls below the forecast, we shall expect a weakening of the American currency.

In our opinion unambiguous terms of Japanese Yen trade are created. Today a price has crossed a bullish trend line and the Pivot resistance simultaneously. This is a significant signal of a probable direction change. An oscillator RSI(14) has done a “correct reversal” and returned from the opposite side to the support line. We shall expect a breakdown of the 37.218 level. ParabolicSAR confirms a change of tendency direction and moved higher then price. We recommend placing of a pending SELL order lower then the 101.972 mark 15 minutes before Core retail release. If a value of macroeconomic indicator drops below the forecast (0.1%) then a position should be preserved. A nearest target is defined by the Fibonacci system and specified according to the historical minimum. We shall place the “take profit” at the 101.652 mark. Risks are limited by the resistance 102.633. This is a reliable level, confirmed by a first Pivot resistance and last ParabolicSAR values. At the same time a risk level should be shifted according to the trend indicator every 4 hours. In any case we recommend to hold position until the publication of Business Inventories at 16:00 CET.


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