Bitcoin was down 7.2% on Thursday, ending it at around $18,800. Ethereum lost 8.7%, while other leading altcoins in the top 10 fell from 4.4% (BNB) to 10.6% (Dogecoin). However, Bitcoin greeted the new day, month and half-year with buying. In a thin market early in the day with Asia predominantly active, this spurred the price up 11% to $20,800, quickly deflating to $19,400.
In other words, we see attempts to create the appearance of buying the dip in bitcoin. Still, the rise in price entails increased selling - a typical sign that institutional and market professionals are “dumping” the asset to retail investors guided by the price chart.
By Friday, the cryptocurrency fear and greed index remained unchanged at 11 points (“extreme fear”). Bitcoin intensified its decline on Thursday after breaking the $20,000 level. BTC tested 11-day lows near $18,600 amid a plunge in stock indices. Last month was one of the worst for bitcoin, with BTC losing 41% of its value, falling short of historical trends.
In terms of seasonality, July is considered a relative success for BTC. Over the past 11 years, bitcoin has ended the month up seven times and down four times. The average rise was 22%, and the average decline was 9%. In the first case, BTC could end July at around $23,000. In the second, it could end July at about $17,000.
According to Deutsche Bank, Bitcoin could recover to $28,000 by the end of 2022 on the back of a likely rally in US equities.
JPMorgan Bank believes the crypto market could bottom out soon, after which bitcoin and other crypto-assets will consolidate. Most traders with margin positions have already washed out of the market. We continue to maintain our position that there remains a sellers’ advantage, and the slowest of them will be careful to sell the crypto market on upside attempts.
According to BitInfoCharts, bitcoin’s fall from historic highs has stripped some 75% of investors (82,600) of their millionaire status. Pantera Capital founder Dan Morehead is confident that it’s too early to talk about a “bottom” of the market. He expects several more defaults by companies in the sector shortly - similar to the story of Three Arrows Capital.
OTC cryptocurrency dealer Genesis Global Trading could face hundreds of millions of dollars in losses due to the loss of liquidity of counterparties Three Arrows Capital and Babel Finance. Lee Reiners, director of the Center for Global Financial Markets at Duke University in North Carolina, believes digital currencies have no real value and should be banned.