GDP and PMI Figures Show

2 August, 2016

The Eurozone GDP QoQ rose by 0.3% in the second quarter, only half comparing to the figure of 0.6% in the first quarter. Eurozone GDP YoY was 1.6%, more than the expectation of 1.5%, yet still below the 1.7% seen in Q1. This can be associated with the 0% GDP growth in Q2 of France ( the second largest economy in the EU), compared to 0.7% in Q1. The seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate remained unchanged at 10.1%, the lowest number yet since July 2011. The recent data released by Eurostat show that Euro area’s inflation is estimated to be 0.2% in July, double the figure of 0.1% in June, which is the sixth consecutive month improvement, suggesting a moderate economic recovery and a gradual move away from deflation.

This morning a series of Eurozone PMIs were released, including the Spanish, the Italian, the French, the German, the UK and the Eurozone Manufacturing PMIs. The Spanish PMI was 51.0, below the expectation of 51.6 and the previous figure of 52.2. The Italian PMI was 51.2, below the expectation of 52.0 and the previous figure of 53.5. The French PMI was 48.6 in line with the expectation and the previous figure. The UK Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.2 from the previous figure of 49.1.

The best performer was the German PMI was 53.8, slightly better than the expectation and previous figure of 53.7. The Eurozone Manufacturing PMI was 52.0, better than the expectation and previous figure of 51.9, indicating a modest-paced recovery in the overall economic condition of the Eurozone, however still subject to fragility.

On the EURUSD 4 hourly chart, the price has broken out the upside uptrend line resistance at 1.114 with a long bullish candle last Friday as the dollar weakened, then held above the newly formed support level and all EMAs. The price has been moving along the Bollinger Band upper band since 27th July, indicating that the bullish trend is unchanged.

Yet the current price is at the 50% post referendum Fibonacci retracement level, also below the significant resistance at 1.12, implying selling pressure. In addition, the RSI indicator is above 70, and the KD indicator shows a divergence, suggesting a corrective pullback.

Upside resistances at 1.12 followed by 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1.123.

Downside uptrend line support at 1.115 followed by 1.113, the daily time frame 8 EMA at 1.1088, 20 EMA at 1.1083 and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1.1108.

This morning DAX opened above the major resistance at 10370, reaching the highest level since April 2016.

Yet the current price is at the downtrend line resistance since April 2015. In addition, the daily time frame KD indicator is above 80 and shows a divergence from the price. The bullish trend is unchanged, yet be aware of a corrective pullback.

Downside supports at 10370 followed by the pre-referendum high at 10348, 10300, and 10260.

Upside resistance at 10445 the followed by the high in April at 10485.


Source  
Oil is back in the spotlight1 Jun, 2020  

This week, oil may return to investors' focus, on par with the U.S. labour market. This data promises to shed light on how active the real recovery in consumer...

Americans pass pandemic holiday in parks as death toll nears 10000025 May, 2020  

Americans sunbathed on beaches, fished from boats and strolled on boardwalks this holiday weekend, but the occasional person wearing a mask was...

New U.S. House coronavirus bill contains $3 trillion plus in aid13 May, 2020  

The Democratic-led U.S. House of Representatives unveiled on Tuesday a sweeping new coronavirus bill with more than $3 trillion in assistance to states...


The phantom threat of inflation and fears of the virus second wave12 May, 2020  

Asian indices are losing about 1% on Tuesday morning while futures for European and US indices point to open in the red. This is associated...

UK could start lifting coronavirus lockdown measures7 May, 2020  

Britain now has the highest Covid-19 death toll in Europe, according to the latest official figures, climbing past Italy which, alongside Spain, has been among the...

Scientists Create Antibody That Defeats Coronavirus in Lab5 May, 2020  

Scientists created a monoclonal antibody that can defeat the new coronavirus in the lab, an early but promising step in efforts to find treatments and curb...


Saving more money than ever is destroying the economy4 May, 2020  

The COVID-19 pandemic is hurting many spheres of the economy. To slow the spread of the virus, the government told people to stay at home. Tons of businesses...

US weekly jobless claims hit 3.84 million1 May, 2020  

First-time filings for unemployment insurance hit 3.84 million last week as the wave of economic pain continues, though the worst appears to be in the past, according...

These countries effectively contained the coronavirus28 Apr, 2020  

Countries like Australia, New Zealand and South Korea are among the few which managed to buck the trend and put a lid on the coronavirus outbreak, at least for now...