Majors guided by ECB decision today

7 March, 2019

According to Jens Naervig Pedersen, senior analyst at Danske Bank, for majors, it is all about the ECB today.

“The main thing the FX market is waiting for from the ECB is for it to revisit its forward guidance on rates - and, as this is unlikely to be touched this month, we think it remains too early for the ECB to drive the EUR too much.”

“If we are right that no liquidity injection will be announced in March (even if we stress that there are risks to this call after the ECB sources story yesterday), the knee-jerk reaction to the ECB today could offer some limited EUR support as no TLTRO could at first sight be seen as a hawkish signal.”

“We do not expect a move in EUR/USD significantly above the 1.1350 level though (resistance at 1.1353). Finally, we note that IMM positioning data is finally now up-to-date after delays in the aftermath of the US government shutdown.”

“Overall, JPY shorts have been reduced since New Year whereas EUR, USD and GBP positioning is little changed overall: speculators remain short EUR and GBP and long USD.”


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