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UK Brexit Vote Due Amid GDP Report


12 March 2019

The US dollar extended declines for a second daily session. Economic data on the day was relatively sparse. The euro traded subdued while gold prices weakened on the day.

Germany

German industrial production figures showed a disappointing print. Industrial production fell 0.8% on the month in January 2019. This was well below the estimates of a 0.5% increase and down from December’s 0.8% expansion. Most of the declines were attributed to a slump in the automobile industry.

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NY Trading Session

The NY trading session saw U.S. retail sales recovering from the decline in December. Headline retail sales increased 0.2% on the month against estimates of a flat print. Core retail sales rose 0.9%, beating estimates of a 0.4% increase. However, December’s core retail sales were revised lower to show a 2.1% decline. Meanwhile, headline retail sales for December underwent a revision to 1.6% declines.

Today’s Schedule

The economic data today kicks off with the European session starting with the UK’s GDP figures. Economists forecast that the GDP will advance 0.2% in January. The data comes following a 0.4% decline in the previous period.

Besides the GDP data, the UK’s manufacturing, industrial and construction output reports will also be released. The data is, however, likely to be overshadowed by the Brexit vote due later in the evening.

Brexit

The parliamentary vote comes a few weeks before the UK is expected to exit out of the EU. The general perception is for the UK parliament to reject the Brexit bill once again.

Overnight newswires reported that PM May managed to clinch a last-minute deal with EU’s Juncker giving renewed hopes of an brexit agreement. In a late night news conference, the British PM said:

“Today we have secured legal changes.” 

This served as her announcement of the joint deal and unilateral decision addressing the Irish backstop agreement. The GBP surged 2% on the news overnight.

EURUSD Intraday Analysis

EURUSD (1.1256): The euro currency posted gains for the second daily session after previously falling to lows of 1.1175. The common currency is posting a hidden bearish divergence near the resistance level that is being tested at 1.1256. A reversal to the downside could push the euro lower to 1.1212. A rebound off this level will confirm that the bottom is in place. To the upside, a breakout above 1.1256 will confirm further gains to 1.1309 – 1.1327 resistance area.

USDJPY Intraday Analysis

USDJPY (111.40): The USDJPY posted a modest correction after prices touched lows of 110.87. However, with price closing bullish on the day, a follow-through from here could confirm the upside. The USDJPY will now need to break past the previous highs of 112.13. This will potentially keep the bullish momentum intact, pushing the USDJPY to test the resistance area of 112.50. However, failure to maintain the gains could come at a risk of the USDJPY breaking lower with the support at 109.74 likely to be the downside target.

XAUUSD Intraday Analysis

XAUUSD (1296.27): Gold posted modest declines on Monday following Friday’s bullish close. However, price action managed to recover these declines during the early trading session today. The reversal came after gold briefly tested the support at 1290.50 level. On the 4-hour chart, the Stochastics is showing that momentum is building up. This could potentially keep gold biased to the upside. In the short term, the previous highs at 1300.80 need to be breached to confirm the continuation to the upside. The next main target is at the 1305 level, followed by a correction toward the 1319 – 1322 region.


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