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The euro showed moderate growth


25 September 2019

EUR/USD

The euro showed moderate growth against the US dollar on Tuesday, recovering from an amplitude decline in the instrument the day before when the instrument was actively sold amid the publication of weak data on business activity in the manufacturing sector in Germany. German statistics on Tuesday turned out to be significantly better, although in this case there were some negative points. Current Assessment from the IFO in September showed an increase from 97.3 to 98.5 points with a forecast of 97.0 points. Business Climate index for the same period increased from 94.3 to 94.6 points against the forecast of 94.5 points. Business Expectations turned out worse than expected and fell in September from 91.3 to 90.8 points against the forecast of growth to 91.8 points. During today's Asian session, the euro is trading with an increase again. Investors are awaiting the outcome of the ECB meeting and the speech of the representative of the European regulator Benoit Coeuré.

GBP/USD

The British pound showed growth against the US dollar yesterday, recovering from new local lows of September 17. The growth of the instrument was facilitated by news that the UK Supreme Court found the suspension of parliament illegal. Thus, the parliament should begin its work on Wednesday, which will give more time to work out a decision on the agreement with the EU. Meanwhile, the position of Boris Johnson remains unchanged, and no real progress has been achieved in negotiations with the European Commission, so a new delay in Brexit is the best scenario for today. The macroeconomic statistics from the UK published on Tuesday was contradictory. Public Sector Net Borrowing in August rose by 5.766 billion pounds after a decline of 1.472 billion in the previous month. Analysts expected a growth of 6.650 billion. CBI Industrial Trends Orders indicated a decrease in the volume of orders in September from –13 to –28 points, which turned out to be significantly worse than market expectations.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar strengthened significantly against the US currency on Tuesday, recovering from an uncertain start of the week. The instrument was supported by the results of a speech by RBA head Philip Lowe, who expressed optimism regarding the future prospects of the Australian economy, which, in his opinion, will demonstrate steady growth in the near future, but no significant acceleration should be expected. A positive effect should be achieved by a tax refund, which will increase income from households. Regarding the prospects for monetary policy, Lowe still takes a “dovish” position and believes that in the future the Australian economy may need an additional rate cut. During today's Asian session, the instrument again shows a steady decline, losing positions earned the day before.

USD/JPY

The US dollar continued its active decline against the Japanese yen on Tuesday, updating local lows of September 9. The development of negative dynamics in the instrument was facilitated by the weakening of the US currency over the market, while interest in the yen was maintained against the backdrop of increasing uncertainty in the Middle East and around Brexit. Yesterday's US and Japanese statistic was ambiguous. The Japanese Leading Index in July showed an increase from 93.6 to 93.7 points, which turned out to be better than forecasts. Coincident Index for the same period increased from 99.5 to 99.7 points, while investors expected growth to 99.8 points. Data from the United States indicated a decrease in Richmond Manufacturing Index in September from 1 to –9 points with a forecast of –11 points. Redbook Retail Sales Index for the week as of September 20 showed a decline of 1.1% MoM after a decrease of 0.9% MoM over the past period.

Oil

Oil prices fell significantly on Tuesday, responding to weak macroeconomic statistics from Europe, which intensified the risks of a slowdown in the global economy. At the same time, investors are still counting on a quick recovery in oil production in Saudi Arabia, which also puts pressure on quotes. Another “bearish” factor was the report of the American Petroleum Institute on oil reserves. For the week as of September 20, the report reflected growth in stocks by 1.400 million barrels after growth of 0.592 million barrels for the previous period. Today, investors are awaiting the publication of an official report on oil reserves from the US Department of Energy.


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