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European currency rose significantly


17 October 2019

EUR/USD

The European currency rose significantly against the US dollar on Wednesday, updating local highs of September 16. EUR was supported by the macroeconomic statistics from the euro area. Core Consumer Price Index in September rose by 0.4% MoM and 1.0% YoY, which was slightly better than in the previous month (+0.4% MoM and +0.9% YoY). The euro area Trade Balance surplus in August rose from EUR 17.5 to 20.3 billion, exceeding forecasts of EUR 18.9 billion. Additional support for the instrument was provided by the newly improved prospects for a deal between the EU and the UK at today's summit. The EU representatives noted that all the differences were overcome and, theoretically, nothing prevents to conclude a deal before the end of this week. This Saturday, a vote on the final version of the deal is planned in the parliament.


GBP/USD

The British pound showed growth against the US dollar on Wednesday, updating local highs of May 15. The pound is supported by good prospects for a deal between the EU and the UK at today’s summit. The summit Chairman Donald Tusk noted that the agreement is ready and it is likely to be signed by all 27 participating countries. Optimistic news also came from the UK, where DUP leaders said they agreed with the Brexit proposals and were ready to support them on Saturday’s vote. Meanwhile, the UK macroeconomic statistics put pressure on the pound. Retail Price Index fell by 0.2% MoM in September after rising by 0.8% MoM a month earlier. Analysts had expected decline by 0.1% MoM. Consumer Price Index in September showed an increase of 0.1% MoM and 1.7% YoY, which turned out to be worse than forecasts of +0.2% MoM and +1.8% YoY.


AUD/USD

The Australian dollar showed ambiguous dynamics against the US currency on Wednesday, but is again growing rapidly during today’s Asian session. Some support for the instrument was provided by improved prospects for concluding an agreement between the EU and the UK. In turn, an attempt by US lawmakers to review Hong Kong’s special trade status threatens with new problems in relations with China and a breakdown in the results of trade negotiations. Today, investors are focused on the September statistics on the Australian labor market. Employment Change in September grew by 14.7K against 37.9K a month earlier. Analysts had expected an increase of 15K. At the same time, Full Time Employment increased by 26.2K after a decrease of 13.2K last month, and Part Time Employment decreased by 11.4K after an increase of 51.1K in August. Unemployment Rate in September decreased unexpectedly from 5.3% to 5.2%.


USD/JPY

The US dollar fell slightly against the Japanese yen on Wednesday, reversing near its local highs of August 1. The pressure on the US currency, in addition to a number of technical factors, was exerted by weak statistics on the dynamics of US retail sales. Retail Sales in September showed a decrease of 0.3% MoM after an increase of 0.6% MoM a month earlier. Analysts had expected positive dynamics to remain at +0.3% MoM. Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM also declined in September by 0.1% MoM after growth by 0.2% MoM and with the forecast of +0.2%.


Oil

Oil prices showed a slight increase on Wednesday, responding to corrective sentiment in the US currency and optimistic signals from OPEC that the agreement on limiting oil supplies could be extended in December. The next meeting of the cartel is scheduled for December 5-6 and should be held in Vienna. Pressure on quotes was exerted by API Weekly Crude Oil Stock Report. For the week as of October 11, the indicator increased sharply by 10.50 million barrels after an increase of 4.13 million barrels over the past period. Today, investors are awaiting the publication of the EIA Crude Oil Inventories.


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