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EUR showed a decline against USD

8 November 2019


EUR showed a decline against USD on Thursday, updating local lows of October 16. Pressure on the euro was exerted by moderate growth in the US currency amid improved prospects for a trade agreement between the US and China. There was information in the media that the parties are ready to mutually cancel part of the previously imposed higher import duties, which indicates some progress in the negotiations. However, the timing and venue of signing the agreement are still unknown. Yesterday's macroeconomic statistics from Germany had an additional negative impact on the euro. Industrial Production in September decreased by 0.6% MoM after an increase of 0.4% MoM a month earlier. Analysts had expected decline by 0.4% MoM. In annual terms, the decline has accelerated from –3.9% YoY to –4.3% YoY, with the forecast of –2.9% YoY.


GBP fell against USD on Thursday, noting a new local low since October 24. The results of the Bank of England meeting, as well as the continued moderate growth of the dollar against the backdrop of improving prospects for a trade agreement between the United States and China, contributed to the decrease in the instrument. As expected, the British regulator kept the key interest rate at 0.75%, and the volume of the quantitative easing program remained at 435B pounds. At the same time, the vote to maintain the rate was not unanimous. Two representatives of the regulator spoke out for its decline due to the high level of uncertainty in the global economy and the risks that Brexit brings.


AUD rose slightly against USD on Thursday, but again returned to decline during today's Asian session. The Australian currency was boosted yesterday by positive data from Australia on September export dynamics, which allowed for a stronger trade surplus. Additional support for the instrument was provided by positive news regarding the process of trade negotiations between the USA and China. Today, the instrument is again declining, despite the publication of moderately optimistic statistics on exports from China. In October, exports fell by 0.9% YoY after a decrease of 3.2% YoY in the previous month. Analysts had expected further deterioration in the dynamics of the indicator to –3.9% YoY. Imports for the same period decreased by 6.4% YoY after a decrease of 8.5% YoY in September. The trade surplus in October increased from 39.65B to 42.81B dollars, which exceeded market forecasts of 40.83B dollars.


USD rose against JPY on Thursday, updating local highs of May 31. The development of the "bullish" dynamics of the instrument was facilitated by the depreciation of the Japanese currency against the background of an upbeat sentiment regarding the conclusion of a trade agreement between the United States and China. Despite the fact that currently the new terms for signing the preliminary trade agreement have not been agreed upon, the comments of the officials allow one to believe in real progress in the ongoing negotiations. Today, the pair is trading in both directions. The yen is moderately supported by the Japanese macroeconomic data. Household Spending in September grew by 9.5% YoY after growth by 1.0% YoY a month earlier. Analysts had expected growth by 7.8% YoY. Overall wage income of employees in September rose by 0.8% YoY after a decrease of 0.1% YoY in the previous month, with a forecast of +0.4% YoY.


Oil prices showed moderate growth on Thursday, responding to news that China and the US agreed on a plan to mutually reduce existing high import duties after a preliminary trade deal was concluded. However, the timing of the signing of this agreement is not yet known, although earlier information appeared in the media that the date could be postponed to early December. Today, oil quotes are relatively stable and expect new drivers to appear at the market. On Friday, investors are focused on Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count report in the United States.


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