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Oil prices showed ambiguous dynamics


11 November 2019

EUR/USD

EUR showed a confident decline against USD last Friday, updating local lows of October 15. The development of the "bearish" trend was promoted by optimistic news around the US-Chinese trade negotiations. PRC representatives said that the parties are ready to mutually cancel a number of increased import duties as part of the conclusion of a preliminary trade agreement. However, later this information was not confirmed by the American side, and Donald Trump, commenting on the spreading rumors, said that the issue remains unresolved. In addition, Trump noted that in order to conclude the first phase of a trade agreement, the PRC president will have to come to the United States. The timing of a possible signing of the document is still unknown.


GBP/USD

GBP fell against USD on Friday, continuing to develop a downtrend and updating local lows of October 16. Positions of the pound at the end of last trading week were under pressure amid the publication of optimistic news regarding the process of trade negotiations between the US and China. Later, however, optimism about the imminent signing of the preliminary agreement somewhat diminished, and investors turned their attention to the upcoming early parliamentary elections in Great Britain in December. Today, the pair is trading in both directions, waiting for the appearance of new drivers at the market. The focus of investors is on macroeconomic statistics from the UK. Among other things, investors are interested in the UK GDP data for Q3 2019. Also, markets will be interested in statistics on Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production for September.


AUD/USD

AUD showed a steady decline against USD on Friday, updating local lows of October 30. The development of negative dynamics was facilitated by technical factors that intensified by the end of the trading week, as well as the moderate growth of the American currency against the background of increased investor optimism regarding trade negotiations between the US and China. Friday's macroeconomic statistics was contradictory. Australian Home Loans in September grew by 1.4% MoM after growth of 2.5% MoM in the previous month. Analysts had expected a slowdown in the increase to 1.3% MoM. Chinese statistics reflected improvement in the dynamics of foreign trade. In October, Exports fell by 0.9% YoY after a decrease of 3.2% YoY in the previous month. Imports for the same period decreased by 6.4% YoY after a decrease of 8.5% YoY in September. The trade surplus in October amounted to 42.81B dollars against the previous value of 39.65B dollars. Analysts had expected surplus growth to only 40.83B dollars.


USD/JPY

USD ended last week with ambiguous dynamics against JPY. Despite the publication of quite positive Japanese data, the instrument received support from optimistic market sentiment regarding the conclusion of a preliminary agreement between the United States and China. Coincident Indicators Index in October rose from 99 to 101 points with a forecast of growth of only 99.5 points. The Leading Indicators Index for the same period fell from 91.9 to 92.2 points with a forecast of 91.7 points. Today, the instrument shows a moderate decline, despite the publication of weak macroeconomic statistics from Japan. Core Machinery Orders in Japan in September decreased by 2.9% MoM after a decrease of 2.4% MoM in the previous month. Analysts had expected growth rate at 0.9% MoM.


Oil

Oil prices showed ambiguous dynamics on Friday, reacting to the publication of conflicting information on the process of trade negotiations between the US and China. The quotes were pressured by the comments of Donald Trump, who stated that he had not agreed to abolish previously imposed import duties on Chinese goods just yet. Last week the media reported that the US and China are preparing for the mutual abolition of import duties as part of the signing of the first phase of the trade agreement. Moderate support for the instrument on Friday was provided by Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count report. For the reporting week, the number of oil rigs decreased from 691 to 684 units.


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