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The death of the oil era and the US stimulus decision

13 October 2020

The era of growing demand for oil in most of the developed countries of the world is in its last years. In the next five years, the consumption of "black gold" in the OECD countries will begin to decline, and by 2045 will collapse by 35%, OPEC writes in its annual review.

OECD countries, which include the United States, the European Union, as well as the developed economies of Asia, including Japan and South Korea, last year "burned" 45% of all purchased oil. By 2025, they will reduce consumption to 40.2 million barrels per day, by 2030 - to 38, and in 25 years the volume of oil consumed will be only 29.3 million barrels per day. There is a tendency in the world to replace conventional transport with electric, so according to a study by OPEC, out of two and a half billion cars on the planet in 2045, 430 million will be electric vehicles. This knocks out the foundation from under the oil workers' feet, leaving them with the problem of constantly decreasing demand for gasoline.

The White House is preparing a new package of measures to stimulate the growth of the US economy hit by the COVID-19 pandemic, worth $1.8 trillion. The Donald Trump-approved package aims to help small businesses and airlines, as well as payments to households. Last week, the House of Representatives approved $2.2 trillion in stimulus. Now we see adjustments and a certain decrease in the volume of the program. In their current form, these incentives are nothing more than a political factor that can play into the hands of the current president. But that will only be if American voters receive “Trump’s” $1,200 before the election.

Last time, money from such a program reached people after 19 days. It turns out that Donald Trump is not interested in "moving" expenses after the elections, so we are waiting for approval and launch this month, which will create significant growth across the entire spectrum of the market.

Donald Trump, who recovered from the coronavirus with lightning speed, rocked the markets with his statements all week, every now and then changing his position on the stimulus negotiations. Meanwhile, the idea of ​​a big victory for Democratic candidate Joe Biden in the US presidential election is taking over the markets. Asian currencies, which are most dependent on Trump's foreign policy, are back in vogue, just the opposite. If Biden wins, he will revert to rule-based global trading, with the entire Asia-Pacific region likely to benefit. The currencies of this region are becoming the most interesting, among them the Australian and New Zealand dollars, and of course the Japanese yen.



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