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December 2020 - Reasons to be Cheerful

2 December 2020

One of my childhood heroes, Ian Drury (who overcame being born with Polio to do what he wanted and always believed in himself), sang of Reasons to be Cheerful, Part 3. Trading in December can often be like that – here are my thoughts for the month ahead.

New President, Fiscal Stimulus & Pandemic Response – December 14 should see the Electoral College confirm its election results. Jan 5 is the final run-off for control of the Senate – likely to remain Republican. Janet Yellen as the new Treasury Secretary should see more cooperation between Government & FED – biases a bigger overall Fiscal package. New pandemic response will be implemented from Jan 20. Restart of relationship with China, EU and even Iran. Vaccine rollout in USA before yearend.

Global Stock Markets traditionally rise in December – especially in BULL years

During November all US equity markets posted new all-time highs. This week the key USA500 pushed over 3675. – the SANTA RALLY looks set.

Since 1970, the equity markets (UK100 & USA500) have risen almost every December – 42 years out of 49, or 85.7% of the time1.  2020 is the 11th year of the equity market Bull Run and the USA500 has risen close to 11% during November. The USA30 had its best November since 1987, and many European & Asian equity markets also had their best November on record.

Since 1987, the USA500 has logged gains in 25 out of 33 years from the close on Friday after Thanksgiving to yearend.

Five of the best (positive) trading days for stock markets (UK100 & USA500) for the entire year occur in December – All of them after December 21.



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