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Dollar, Oil & Gold Pressured, Equities higher

19 February 2021

The Dollar has softened for a second consecutive day, despite US Treasury yields perking up, although remaining off trend highs seen earlier in the week. Global stock markets have continued to exhibit a sputtering price action in the face of historically stretched valuations and the recent spike in yields. In the commodity realm, oil prices have corrected while base metals have remained buoyant, with nickel and particularly Copper, for instance, posting fresh major trend highs.

The USDIndex posted a three-day low at 90.19, finding some support at the S2 level, which marks a little over a two-thirds retrace of the gains that were seen on Tuesday and Wednesday. EURUSD concurrently rose above 1.2100 for the first time since Wednesday, to stall at R2 1.2140. USDJPY dropped for a third straight day, posting a three-day low below S2 105.30. The Yen traded softer against most other currencies. Cable lifted above 1.4000 for the first time since April 2018, while the Pound traded softer against the Euro, correcting after rising against the common currency on each day over the last week, which produced an 11-month peak yesterday.

There was unusual divergence among the dollar bloc, which correlated with the divergence between rising base metal prices and a concurrent fall in oil prices, with the Australian Dollar outperforming the main currencies while the Canadian Dollar underperformed. This saw the AUDCAD cross lift by over 0.7% in pegging a 32-month high at 0.9915. AUDUSD, meanwhile, surged 1% in making a 35-month high at 0.7843, while AUDJPY rallied into 26-month high territory. USDCAD ebbed comparatively moderately, to a three-day low at 1.2632, while the Canadian Dollar weakened against the Euro and Yen, among other currencies.

Weaker oil prices affected the Loonie and other oil correlating currencies. Front-month WTI oil futures dove over 2.5% in posting a one-week low as USOIL touched $58.57. USOil is down over 5% from the 13-month high that was seen yesterday at $62.26. Bitcoin continued to hold firm on dips, aided by Elon Musk asserting that bitcoin “is simply a less dumb form of liquidity than cash.” Gold, which spiked to 7-month lows during the Asian session at $1760.58, has since recovered over $1770.00 but is down for a seventh consecutive day, losing over 4%.

US equity futures have extended higher to post small gains with the USA30 up 0.1%, the USA500 0.4% firmer, and the USA100 0.5% higher. European bourses are in the green with the GER30 rallying 0.5% while the UK100 lags and is only 0.1% higher.



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