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Bond bears take FOMC's message to heart

19 March 2021

Bond bears took the FOMC’s message to heart and were big sellers on the day, driving yields sharply higher. Though the long end generally led the weakness, the entire curve was under pressure. Treasury yields dropped -1.7 bp overnight to now 1.69%, but JGB rates lifted 1.4 bp to 0.111%, after a mixed bag of BoJ decisions that included a widening of the band around the yield targets and a scrapping of the ETF buying schedule within an unchanged buying ceiling.

The FOMC’s optimistic view on the economy and the pledge to keep policy supportive for now rekindled reflation trades yesterday and the BoE also did little to push back against the trend higher in yields. ECB’s Lagarde meanwhile did her best to support peripheral markets with dovish comments in the PM, but it will also be the ECB’s stepped up purchase schedule that is helping to keep Eurozone spreads in as the recovery is still looking shaky.


Forex Market

Today: There is little on the calendar in Europe and the US, which will leave markets to digest the impact of this week’s round of central bank decisions, while watching the difficult US-China meeting that didn’t get off to a harmonious start.

Biggest movers this week are USOIL and Palladium, with USOIL at $58.20 as oil prices are heading for the biggest weekly drop since September and Palladium at $2,755 on disruptions in supply along with expectations of more demand from the automobile sector.



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