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USD Holds Gains, Equities Recover

21 July 2021

USD holds close to 3-mth highs (USDIndex 93.10) on safe-haven bid. Equities bounce back (+1.5%; but VIX +8.00% today! 21.60). Yields remain pressured but off 5-month lows (10yr 1.21%). Virus concerns weigh. Overnight – Shares in Asia followed US higher, Netflix posted strong growth & plans to offer games on-line, but the key subscriber numbers & outlook were poor. JPY exports better than expected, AUD Retail Sales (June) dived (-1.8%) due to lockdowns.

European Open – DAX & FTSE 100 futures currently up 0.1% & US futures also posting slight gains, though NASDAQ is struggling after a mixed session across Asia-Pacific region. Markets remain cautious, keeping a wary eye on virus developments. ECB is expected to strengthen forward guidance at tomorrow’s meeting & setbacks on the virus front are likely to keep central banks in wait & see mode for now as a more gradual recovery will also reduce demand side inflation pressures.

Today – EIA Oil Inventories, supply from Germany & US. Earnings from Daimler, Novartis, Verizon, Johnson & Johnson, Coca-Cola.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDJPY (-0.50%). Bounced from 6-mth low under 80.00 yesterday to 80.67 highs earlier. Declined to 80.15 following overnight data. Breached 21EMA earlier, faster MAs aligned lower, RSI 41 and falling, MACD signal line & histogram on 0 line and weak. H1 ATR 0.130, Daily ATR 0.845.



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