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Stock Market Breadth Ahead and Jackson Hole Day

27 August 2021

Stock investors will be learning more about the Fed’s monetary stance today. Exiting the loose monetary policy is extremely important for the Fed as they cannot keep this policy in place forever. Today, we could hear from the Fed in terms of their view of the economy, and how the Fed may be pulling the support, which they put in place to save the US economy from a major catastrophe. The first action, which is expected from the Fed, is to reduce the asset purchase programme, which currently sits at $120 billion each month, and then it will be lifting the interest rates from their ultra-low levels.

One issue the Fed is facing is that the economic numbers are telling us that growth seems to be stalling, and the last thing the Fed wants to do is to make investors and traders panic by sending a hawkish message. It is about finding the right balance, and every statement and word needs to be perfectly crafted.

Stock futures are trading cautiously higher today, and it is highly likely that this theme may continue until we hear more from the Fed Chairman Jerome Powel later in the day. The Asian stock market traded mostly mixed on Friday. The Nikkei index declined 0.46%. The HSI index increased by 0.20%, while the ASX index decreased 0.03%. The Shanghai index advanced by 0.44%.

Dow Jones and S&P 500: Market Breadth

The Dow Jones’ market upward momentum eased off yesterday. 77% of the Dow Jones stocks traded above their 200-day moving average. The S&P 500 stock breadth also lost strength yesterday. 79% of the shares traded above their 200-day moving average. 

The Dow Jones futures are trading modestly higher today. In terms of economic data, investors will be looking at the Personal Income and Personal Spending data, which is due later in the day. The forecast for Personal Income is 0.2% and Personal Spending is 0.4%. 

The Dow Jones futures are still trading in an upward channel on the daily time frame. The bulls are still in control of the price as the price is trading above the 50, 100 and 200-day SMA on the daily time frame. As long as the price continues to trade above these moving averages, it is highly likely that we may continue to see more record highs for the Dow Jones. Although, it is important to note that there is negative divergence between the Dow Jones and the RSI on the daily time frame, which means that while the price is making higher highs, the momentum indicator, the RSI isn’t confirming the same. Traders should take this as a sign of caution. The near term support is at 34,737, while the resistance is at 35,633.    

Stock Market Rally

The S&P 500 stock index closed lower yesterday; the index declined by 0.58%. The consumer discretionary sector led the index lower, and 9 out of 11 sectors closed lower. The Dow index decreased yesterday; the Dow stocks moved the index decreased by 0.58%. 4 shares advanced, while 26 shares closed lower. The NASDAQ composite, a tech-savvy index, also closed lower by 0.64% yesterday.

S&P 500 Leaders and Laggards: ETSY and Dollar tree

ETSY stock contributed the biggest gain, soaring 5.09%%. Dollar Tree was the largest drag; it fell by 12.07%. The S&P 500 stock index is up 20.74% so far this year. Salesforce provided the biggest help for the Dow Jones; it advanced by 2.66%, while Boeing was the largest decliner, it fell by 2.05%%. 



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