Trading is rather directionless this morning in the lead up to the jobs data. USD moved lower (USDIndex 101.70). Stocks extended gains overnight (NASDAQ +2.69%) and Treasuries bounced from red to green and back again. Asian markets managed pretty broad gains, with tech stocks still outperforming after they led yesterday’s rally on Wall Street (Nikkei +1.2%, ASX +0.9%) with China & HK closed today. European FUTS are lower (Italy, Spain & France closed & UK closed until Monday). Treasury announced a $96 bln package of coupon auctions for next week. Yesterday’s data showed strength in jobless claims and weakness in ADP private payrolls and factory orders.
- USDIndex pulled back to 101.70, reverting all the gains from Wednesday.
- Equities – USA500 (+1.84%) at 4189, while the USA30 was 1.33% firmer. The GER40 future is up 0.8% while US futures are looking more cautious as key US payroll numbers come into view.
- Yields 10-year rate was up 0.5 bps to 2.91%, with the 2-year 0.2 bps lower at 2.64%.
- Gold rallied to $1874.
- Bitcoin back above $30k.
- FX markets – USDIndex is slightly lower, EURUSD managed to move up to 1.0755, USDJPY is still holding close to 130.00, Cable is at 1.2574.
NFP is unlikely to make any difference in terms of the Fed – but the labor market into Q3 will be an important determinant for the FOMC. Meanwhile, the markets continue to vacillate on risk-on, risk-off flows, and waver on inflation/growth uncertainties, as well as the outlook for the responses from key central banks, while volatility in energy and the ongoing distortions from supply chains also continue to impact.
Today – EU Retail Sales, US NFP, ISM Services PMI and Speech from Biden. Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) Cocoa (-1.55%) dipped to 50-period SMA at 2470 from 2537. MAs aligning lower, MACD lines decline but hold above 0, RSI 46 but pointing higher, H1 ATR 19.07, Daily ATR 51.92.
