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Several factors drove the price move for US stocks

4 July 2022 Written by Naeem Aslam  AvaTrade Chief Market Analyst Naeem Aslam

The US economy’s most volatile first half of the year is over, and S&P 500 recorded its worst H1 since 1970. Several factors drove the price move for US stocks. Soaring inflation, geopolitical tensions, higher oil prices and a hawkish monetary are undoubtedly the most important ones. Now traders believe that recession is highly likely and global economic growth will likely slow down. This means the second half of the year could be even worse for the US stock market. 


After dropping the previous session due to OPEC+’s announcement that it will continue to increase oil output in August and investors’ concerns about the global economy’s health, oil prices began to rise in early trade on Friday. After two days of discussions, the producers in the OPEC+ group, including Russia, decided to adhere to their output policy on Thursday. However, starting in September, the producer club refrained from discussing policy.

Traders will remain focused on the supply and demand equation as it is very much driving the price. Investors widely believe that the path of the least resistance is still skewed to the upside as there were plenty of supply issues past August.


Dutch stock exchange major The first Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund is being launched by Euronext Amsterdam, a division of the pan-European market Euronext (ETF). The Bitcoin ETF will debut on Euronext Amsterdam next month, according to a London-based Jacobi Asset Management statement on Thursday. Under the symbol BCOIN, the spot Bitcoin ETF will begin trading on the Euronext Amsterdam Exchange.

It is the first time we will see the spot or physically-backed Bitcoin ETF product on the market, and the fund is not permitted to lend, stake, or leverage any of its assets. Remember, the most recent chaos in the market is mainly due to the lending of crypto assets by companies. These companies promised unreal yields to investors, and now more prominent players are being paid cents on the dollar, and the rest are forced into liquidation. Investors purchasing and exchange-traded Bitcoin products will hold the units that hold the Bitcoin for the first time in Europe.

Asian Markets 

The Asian stock market traded lower on the week’s last trading day. The Nikkei index fell by 1.77%. The HSI index decreased by 0.62%, while the KOPSI index declined by 1.48%. The Shanghai index also dropped by 0.19%.

The Dow Jones’ market breadth lost further momentum. 32% of the Dow Jones stocks are trading above their 200-day moving average. The S&P 500 stock breadth also confirmed some loss in its momentum. 34% of the shares traded above their 200-day moving average. 

Dow Jones Futures Today

The Dow Jones futures are trading lower today. In terms of economic data, investors will be looking at the US ISM manufacturing PMI reading, which will be coming out at 14:00 GMT. The forecast is for 54.6, while the previous reading was 56.1. In addition, we also have the Construction Spending Prices number coming out, and the forecast is for 0.3% against the previous number of 0.2%. 

The Dow Jones futures are trading lower, and the index has failed to break above the 50-day SMA on the daily time frame. The fact that the price has rejected the 50-day in less than two weeks tie indicates that prices are likely to move lower, and it is expected that more pain could be ahead of the index. In addition, the Dow Jones index continues to trade below the 100 and 200-day SA on the daily time frame, which further confirms that the path of the least resistance is skewed to the downside. 

 As for the RSI, it indicates that prices are not oversold on the daily time frame. Currently, the RSI is trading at 45. The near-term support is 29,298, while the resistance is 32,146.  

Stock Market Rally


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