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Cooler USD & Stocks Higher Ahead of CPI


14 September 2022 Written by Stuart Cowell  HF Markets Head Market Analyst Stuart Cowell

USDIndex – Slips (108.00 tested) for a 5th straight day, lifting EUR & GBP. Fed Funds Futures back to 90% chance of 75 bp (third consecutive) hike. 10-yr Bond Auction was weak, only filled after it hit 3.33% (2.76% last time). “Higher for longer” mantra from Reuters Poll¹. Has Inflation peaked? EUR – Trades at 1.0135 now from a test of 1.0200 yesterday. 

JPY markets not convinced BOJ intervention is imminent. Although Yen up today against others still weak vs. USD, touched 143.50 yesterday and holds 142.30 now. GBP traded over 1.1700 yesterday and holds 1.1723 now, following good jobs data. London remains muted (politics suspended) but open ahead of Queen’s funeral September 19 (Bank Holiday).

Stocks US stocks moved higher again as Dollar & Yields cooled (S&P500 +1.06% 4110) FUTS trade at 4121. Nasdaq best performer (APPL +3.85%, PTON +7.18%). Asian stock markets have rallied too, and European FUTS are higher pre-open. USOil topped at $89.00 on Monday on more chatter of supply issues and possible easing of geopolitical tensions. Trades at $86.75 now. 20-day moving average sits at $89.00. Gold – also rallied to $1735 and holds over $1720 now. BTC – rallied higher too and holds at $22.3k.

Overnight & Today – UK Jobs, (Wages beat & Unemployment Rate fell back, Claimant Count reversed sharply (+20.8k) German HICP (steady at 8.8%). To come German ZEW and US CPI.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDJPY (-0.51%) Signs the 6-week rally from 90.00, maybe cooling.  Topped at 98.45 earlier back under 98.00 to 97.76 now. MAs aligning lower, MACD histogram & signal line positive but falling, RSI neutral 43.20, H1 ATR 0.174, Daily ATR 0.972.

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