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Dollar Edges Lower; Traders Look for Pivot at Fed Meeting


1 November 2022

The U.S. dollar weakened in early European trade Tuesday as traders weighed the likelihood that the Federal Reserve signals a less aggressive interest rate tightening path at the end of its latest policy meeting on Wednesday. At 03:55 ET (07:55 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.4% lower at 110.993, retreating from a two-decade high of 114.78 at the end of September. The Fed is widely expected to deliver another 75 basis point rate hike after the conclusion of its latest policy-setting meeting on Wednesday, its fourth such increase in a row.

However, the size of December’s hike is open to debate, with expectations growing that signs of economic weakness will persuade the Fed policymakers to agree to a smaller rate hike, probably of 50 basis points.

The Bank of Canada unexpectedly slowed its pace of rate increases last week, lifting its benchmark overnight lending rate by 50 basis points, instead of the three-quarter move expected, while the Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates by just 25 basis points earlier Tuesday, even as it hiked its inflation forecast and trimmed its GDP outlook.

However, “with global growth under pressure from tighter rates and a misfiring Chinese economy, we think the Eurozone and the euro will continue to struggle. That is why last Thursday's high of 1.0089 in EUR/USD could have been significant,” said analysts at ING, in a note. “A close back under the 0.9900/9910 area this week would support our preferred view of EUR/USD retesting the lows near 0.95.”

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