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Eurozone inflation and Federal Reserve Chair Powell to speak


1 December 2022

Salesforce, often considered a bellwether for company spending, will release Q3 earnings after the close. Wall Street forecasts an EPS of $1.21 on revenue of $7.82 billion. This compares to EPS of $1.27 on revenue of $6.86 billion in the same period a year earlier. Earnings come as the share price trades down 40%year to date and down 50% over the past year amid the broad selloff in tech stocks as interest rates rise. The macro environment is unlikely to change soon, with a strong dollar still posing problems. While Salesforce is well positioned to capitalize on digitalization trends within companies, the concern is whether the macro climate will permit such trends to continue in any meaningful way.

Where might the salesforce price head to?

Salesforce has been forming a series of lower highs and lower lows across the year., hitting 136, its lowest level since April 2020.  The price has managed to rise from this low, but gains have been capped by the 100 sma around $165. More recently, the price appears to be in consolidation. A breakout trade could see buyers look for a move over $165 to bring $192, the August high, into focus. Meanwhile, sellers could look for a move below $136 to bring $13o, the April 2020 low, into target ahead of $115, the March 22020 low.

Eurozone inflation and Federal Reserve Chair Powell to speak

Gold rises ahead of Powell

Gold is pushing higher on Wednesday to a weekly high and is set for its largest monthly gain since May 2021 as the Federal Reserve prepares to slow the pace of rate hikes. Slower rate hikes are beneficial for non-yielding, USD-denominated gold. The USD has also fallen steeply on dovish pivot hopes. Attention today will be firmly on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who is due to speak. Any sense that Powell is pushing back against the dovish pivot could see Gold pare gains. It’s worth noting that this week, Federal Reserve speakers have had a hawkish bias. Meanwhile, should Powell focus on the Fed slowing the pace of hikes, the precious metal could run higher. US ADP payroll data could also influence the precious metal.

EUR/USD looks to inflation data

EUR/USD is falling for a fifth straight day as it heads towards 1.320 ahead of the eurozone inflation data. Expectations are for consumer prices to cool slightly to 10.4% in November from 10.6% in October. Cooler inflation could take the pressure off the ECB to raise interest rates aggressively at the December meeting. The data comes after German and Spanish inflation cooled in October, with the German rate to 11.3% and Spanish inflation dropping dramatically by 6.6%. The data comes ahead of the December meeting, where policymakers are split over whether the hikes by 50 basis points or 75. The USD is rising ahead of a barrage of data, including ADP employment and US GDP data, which is expected to confirm the earlier 4.1% annualized growth reading. 

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