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UK GDP kicks off a busy week on the economic calendar


12 December 2022

After falling 1% last week, the FTSE is edging lower at the start of the new week as caution dominates. Optimism over the end of strict zero- COVID measures in China is being offset by worries about a large jump in the number of daily infections, which could delay the rolling back of Covid curbs. Meanwhile, investors were also showing signs of nerves ahead of a busy week for data, and central banks, with the Fed, ECB, and the BoE all set to announce interest rate decisions. Today the focus is on UK GDP data which is expected to show that the UK economy grew 0.4% MoM in October after falling-0.6% in September.

However, over the three months to October, the economy is expected to contract -0.4%, down from -0.2% in the three months to September.

Where might the FTSE price head to?

After running into resistance at 7620, a six-month high, the FTSE fell lower, breaking below a falling trendline support dating back to early April and also breaking below a steep rising trendline support dating back to mid-October. Support held at 7430, a price that the FTSE would need to break below order to expose the 200 sma and 7330 and the 100 sma at 7290; a break below here could be significant as it would be a break below a rising trend line which dates back to start of March.

On the upside, should buyers defend the support at 7430, resistance can be seen at 7510 ahead of 76 20 with a break above her creating

BTC/USD edges lower in a familiar range

BTC/USD is edging lower below 17k, but continues to trade in a holding pattern, capped on the upside by 17.4k and on the lower side by 16.7k ahead of a big week for central bank action and as investors continue watching for fallout from the collapse of FTX. Although, it would appear that the market has now priced in contagion risk.  More bad news from crypto lenders hasn’t had a significant impact on the price of Bitcoin. Apple Finance has seen some $36 million of loans default, with another $18 million distressed. This debt represents 66% of the total outstanding in Maples 4 active lending pools after some of the biggest borrowers were hit by the collapse of the FTX crypto exchange. 

USD/CAD holds steady ahead of BoC Governor speech

USD/CAD is holding steady after gaining 1.3% last week, its second straight week of gains. Oil prices are modestly firmer, offering support to the loonie after oil prices fell just shy of 11% last week. Meanwhile, the US dollar was supported last week by stronger-than-forecast data, which raised questions over the extent to which the federal serves could slow the pace of rate hikes. Looking ahead, both the US and the Canadian economic calendar are quiet, so attention will be on a speech from BoC’s Governor Tiff Macklem, who could help the pair higher as the Canadian central bank recently ruled out the likelihood of more aggressive rate hikes.

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