Risk appetite improved to kick off spring. Though banking jitters are still an undercurrent, the various rescue measures, including UBS’s takeover of Credit Suisse over the weekend, helped ease global tensions. Trading in Japan is closed for a public holiday. European and US Stocks are extending gains for now, as US Dollar steadied at 103. Confirmation from European officials that equities will take losses before risky bonds, which helped AT1 bond markets in Asia to recover. Speculation that the US could temporarily agree to guarantee all bank deposits if the financial crisis expands also helped!
- RBA comments showed that the bank will consider a pause in the tightening cycle at the next meeting.
- ECB: ECB’s de Cos won’t validate bets of 3.25% peak deposit rate. In the light of recent financial market jitters and after cautious comments on the situation from Lagarde markets have lowered expectations for the peak deposit rate to 3.25%, which would be just one additional 25 bp hike. ECB’s Kasaks suggested more rate hikes underway, if things stabilise.
- FX – USDIndex is slightly higher at 103.10 today. EUR slightly lower to 1.0712 but still in an upchannel. JPY above PP at 131.72. Sterling holds gains above 1.2250. AUD extended losses to 0.6675.
- Stocks – USA100 advanced 0.39%, the US500 up 0.89%, amid broadbased gains, and the USA30 rallied 1.2%. ASX moved up 0.8%, while Hang Seng and CSI300 gained 0.9 so far. Amazon fell 1.8% after announcement for another 9,000 layoffs (so far 9% of its workforce). Google (-0.52%) suspends China’s Pinduoduo app due to malware issues. NYCB (+30%) surge after Signature deal. Pimco & Invesco face losses as the 2 biggest AT1 Bond holders of Credit Suisse.
- First Republic Bank posted further declines on top of the -80% plunge the prior two weeks, following a second downgrade from S&P.
- Commodities – USOil – continues to struggle but recoved from $64 lows to $67.24 now.
- Gold – has been a major beneficiary from the fallout, though it is a bit lower today, down -0.9% to $1971, after surging to $2,009.73. It has not closed with a $2,000 handle since March 8, 2022.
- Cryptocurrencies – BTC reversed from $28.4K highs. Currently at $27.2K.
Today – ECB Lagarde speech, Canadian Inflation & US Existing Home Sales. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDUSD(-55%). Retest 0.6200 floor! MA’s flattened, MACD histogram & signal line remain negative, RSI 35, H1 ATR 0.0009, Daily ATR 48.4.
