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EUR/USD: still under pressure


11 November 2015

Current trend

The EUR/USD pair remains under pressure and reaches new local lows. The EUR is declining amid the strengthening of the USD, which gained support from recent labor market statistics, released in the US. Strong indicators increased chances that US interest rates are to be raised as early as this December. At the same time, according to the Bundesbank forecast, the ECB may cut its deposit rates at the end of the year.

ECB President Mario Draghi's Speech is due on Wednesday, but analysts expect nothing more than renewed commitment to the quantitative easing programme due to low inflation.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart continues declining. The price range tends to widen, but the pair left its lower border. MACD is about to turn up, while still keeping its sell signal. Stochastic is in the oversold zone and trying to start growing.

It is recommended to wait for clearer trading signals. According to Bollinger Bands and Stochastic indicators, an upward correction may form in the short term.

Support levels: 1.0706, 1.0673 (10 November low), 1.0624, 1.0570 (15 April low), 1.0520 (13 April low).

Resistance levels: 1.0808, 1.0843, 1.0900 (near 5 and 6 November highs), 1.1000, 1.1100 (near 28 October high), 1.1153.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the breakout and consolidation above the level of 1.0760 (with appropriate indicators signals) with targets at 1.0840, 1.0900 and stop-loss at 1.0730. Validity – 1-3 days.

Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 1.0690 with the target at 1.0600 and stop-loss at 1.0720. Validity – 2-3 days.

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