EURUSD: expecting a drop to 1.0945

31 March, 2020

On Monday the 30th of March, trading on the euro closed down. The US dollar rose against the majors following a week of decline as investors prepare for a long period of uncertainty. This rise looks like a technical correction.

Trading on the US stock market closed up. The S&P 500 posted its highest weekly rise in percentage terms in 10 years. Stock indices were boosted by the announcement of a $2.2tn stimulus package for the US economy.

Day’s news (GMT+3):

  • 10:55 Germany: unemployment rate (Mar).
  • 11:30 UK: GDP (Q4).
  • 12:00 Eurozone: CPI (Mar).
  • 15:30 Canada: GDP (Jan).
  • 16:00 US: S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices (Jan).
  • 16:45 US: Chicago PMI (Mar).
  • 17:00 US: consumer confidence (Mar).

Expectations of a drop on the EURUSD were met, except that the bears broke through the trend line in this morning’s Asian session. Fears over the spread of the coronavirus continue to reign supreme over the currency market.

We reckon that the downwards correction is set to continue. It would be nice to see a test of 1.0945/50 first. If the rate stays above 1.0953 today, then we can expect to revisit the 1.1148 high. Also bear in mind that the nonfarm payrolls report comes out in the US on Friday. Markets are already bracing themselves for a bad showing. Because of this, trading is likely to remain flat until Friday. Today, we’re forecasting a drop to the D3 line at 1.0945, followed by a bounce to 1.1035.

Source   Presented by Alpari
EURUSD: continued growth expected21 May, 2020  

The promising results of COVID-19 vaccine trials have reduced demand for the safe haven assets. The majors are trading up against the dollar...

EURUSD: expected rebound from the lower line14 May, 2020  

The pair rose to the balance line as expected. At the time of writing, the euro is trading at 1.0807. The majors are currently trading down...

Bulls trying to strengthen the upwards impulse11 May, 2020  

Before the recovery, we got a double bullish divergence model. This should see a bounce to 1.0926. If we assume that we're going to get a flat, then this is the model...

Euro-bulls preparing an assault on 1.090030 Apr, 2020  

On Wednesday the 29th of April, trading on the euro closed 52 pips up at 1.0871. The pair even reached 1.0885 at one point in the day. While the euro made...

Consolidation inside the flat expected17 Mar, 2020  

On Monday, March 16, trading on the euro ended with an increase of 0.69%. The daily candle closed at 1.1180. During the day, the pair...

EURUSD trying to recover after a prolonged dip25 Feb, 2020  

From a technical point of view, the EURUSD recovery looks like a normal correction. Growth is unstable, as is the price model...

Euro climbs back above $1.08, volatility spikes19 Feb, 2020  

The euro rose on Wednesday as improving risk sentiment in global markets paused the dollar's rally, providing relief to the single currency, which had earlier...

EURUSD: upwards correction expected6 Feb, 2020  

We believe that the level of 1.0985 is a strong support. We dare to consider the forecasted growth to 1.1020 through the setting of a new low. The sharper...

135th degree provides solid support27 Jan, 2020  

Today, strong support is found at the 135th degree (1.1014). The forecasted target is lower at around 1.1009, a direct consequence of this morning...