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USD sinks again


21 May 2021

USD reprieve peters out & Powell & US Treasury turn attention to Cryptos. USDIndex under 90.00 to test Tuesday low at 89.65. Equities closed higher +1.00% USA500 4159, Nasdaq outperformed up 1.77%. Asian markets follow higher (Nikkei + 1.00%). Overnight – AUD PMI’s inline, Retail Sales big beat, JPY CPI remains weak but beat. London session UK Retail Sales surge to 9.2%, EZ PMIs better than expected. (55.1 vs 52.5 Services & 62.8 vs 62.5 Manu.) UK PMIs mixed – a big beat for Manu. (66.7 vs 60.7) and a miss for Services. (61.8 vs 62.2)

This week – Economic data slim, FOMC Minutes, Earnings from Walmart (Beat), Vodafone (in-line), Home Depot (beat),  Target (beat), Lowes (beat) Cisco (miss).  Applied Materials ( beat – +4.42%) & Ralph Lauren also big beat but shares closed down 7.00%.

European Open – The June 10-year Bund future is down -15 ticks, underperforming versus U.S. futures, which have moved slightly higher, while in cash markets the 10-year Treasury rate is down -0.2 bp at 1.67%. The reading is up from overnight lows though, as stock market sentiment started to stabilise during the Asian part of the session and DAX and FTSE 100 futures are posting gains of 0.6% and 0.9% respectively. U.S. futures have moved sideways after a weaker close on Wall Street and against the background of the Fed minutes, which suggested that some policy markets have at least started to think about tapering “some point”. For now though the official line at central banks is that the uptick in inflation is transitory and ECB’s Schnabel, who predicted a German CPI rate of over 3% later in the year, said that inflation is likely to recede again in 2022.

Today –  US PMIs, Canadian Retail Sales, EZ Consumer Confidence, Baker Hughes Rig Count, ECB’s Lagarde and de Guindos, Fed’s Kaplan, Bostic, Barking, and Daly. Earnings – Deere, Foot Locker & Booz Allen Hamilton.

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDCHF (-0.44%) declined from 0.7000 yesterday to move below Wednesday’s 0.6960 low and trade at 0.6945 now. Faster MAs remain aligned lower,  RSI 22.7 OS and still moving lower, MACD histogram & signal line aligned lower having broke 0 line earlier. Stochs. falling and in OS zone from yesterday. H1 ATR 0.0011, Daily ATR 0.0051.

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