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EUR/USD looks depressed and approaches 1.2100


4 June 2021

The leg lower in EUR/USD picks up further pace and stays on collision course with the 1.2100 key support on Friday. EUR/USD accelerates the downside and records losses for the fourth consecutive session at the end of the week, trading at shouting distance from the 1.2100 neighbourhood.

The sharp rebound in the dollar forced EUR/USD to recede from weekly tops in the 1.2250 region (Tuesday) to the current vicinity of 1.2100 the figure, all amidst a modest bounce in yields of the German and US 10-year benchmark and (very) auspicious results from the US calendar earlier in the week.

In the domestic docket, Retail Sales in the broader Euroland contracted at a monthly 3.1% in April and expanded nearly 24% over the last twelve months. Across the pond, all the attention will be on the release of the monthly labour market, with Payrolls seen adding 650k jobs in May and the unemployment rate easing to 5.9%. Around the ECB, Chief Lagarde will participate in a discussion panel on Climate in a BIS event.

What to look for around EUR

EUR/USD collapses to the 1.2100 region amidst the broad-based improvement in the sentiment surrounding the dollar. Despite the ongoing knee-jerk, the outlook for the European currency remains constructive and always propped up by the appetite for riskier assets and rising optimism on the recovery in the euro area, which appears in turn supported by the firmer pace of the vaccine rollout. In addition, better-than-expected key fundamentals pari passu with the surging morale in the bloc also props up the upbeat mood surrounding the pair.

Key events in the euro area this week: ECB Lagarde (Friday).

Eminent issues on the back boiler: Asymmetric economic recovery in the region. Sustainability of the pick-up in inflation figures. Progress of the vaccine rollout. Probable political effervescence around the EU Recovery Fund. German elections.

EUR/USD levels to watch

So far, spot is losing 0.14% at 1.2109 and a break below 1.2063 (23.6% Fibo retracement of the November-January rally) would target 1.2051 (weekly low May 13) en route to 1.1985 (monthly low May 5). On the upside, next hurdle is located at 1.2266 (monthly high May 25) followed by 1.2300 (round level) and finally 1.2349 (2021 high Jan.6).

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