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Key resistance at 1.1976/2001 to cap even on NFP miss


2 July 2021

EUR/USD has closed below the confirmed uptrend from the 2020 low at 1.1862, with next short-term supports at 1.1824, then 1.1767. Key resistance is seen at 1.1976/2001, which economists at Credit Suisse expect to cap, even on a payrolls miss. EUR/USD breaks below uptrend from the 2020 low at 1.1862, reinforcing the downside bias

EUR/USD has weakened further ahead of the NFP report today, closing decisively below the important uptrend from March last year and the recent low at 1.1862/47, which further increases the risk of a broader trend turn, with weekly MACD also getting closer to turning outright bearish for the first time since 2020.

The next short-term support is seen at the 78.6% retracement of the March/May rally just below at 1.1824, which the market is testing this morning. A break below here is expected, which should see a move to the lower end of the converging range, now at 1.1767. More important medium-term support remains at 1.1703/1.1695, with only a weekly close below here suggesting a medium-term trend turn. Near-term resistance moves to 1.1911/24. More important resistance is back at 1.1976/2001, which should hold now, even on a NFP miss in our view. Only a close back above here would point to further sideways ranging.

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