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Trade Of The Week: Euro Waits For Crucial ECB Meeting


21 July 2021

All eyes will be on the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting on Thursday. The ECB is widely expected to leave monetary policy unchanged. However, it may be unwise to label this event as a snoozer given how this will be their first meeting since the conclusion of the strategy review.

Before we take a deep dive into what to expect on Thursday, it is worth keeping in mind that the euro has appreciated against most G10 currencies this month, excluding the dollar, yen and swiss franc.

Interestingly, the EURUSD is trading below the 1.1800 level as of writing with the path of least resistance pointing south as the dollar appreciates. How the currency pair concludes this week is likely to be influenced by what happens during the ECB meeting.

There are some of key things to look out for during Thursday's policy meeting.

Redirecting our attention back towards the technicals, the EURUSD remains under pressure on the daily charts. There have been consistently lower lows and lower highs while the MACD trades below zero. Sustained weakness below the 1.1800 level could signal a decline towards 1.1704. Should bears break through 1.1704, the next key point of interest can be found at 1.1620 - a level that has not been seen since November 2020.

Alternatively, a strong move back above 1.1800 could trigger an incline towards 1.1860 and 1.1900, respectively.

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