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EUR/USD: Strong NFP to send the euro further down

6 August 2021

EUR/USD is hovering below 1.1830, around the lows. Is 1.18 in danger? The Federal Reserve's hawkishness has ended EUR/USD's advance - and the euro is set to surrender to Nonfarm Payrolls, FXStreet’s Analyst Yohay Elam briefs.

Kashkari's comments on employment will come to a test on Friday

Fed Vice-Chair Richard Clarida foresees an announcement on tapering coming this year and sees inflation risks to the upside. The bank buys $120 billion worth of bonds every month and prospects of printing fewer greenbacks are boosting the currency. Other colleagues at the Fed such as Mary Daly and Christopher Waller also moved in that direction, while only uber-dove Neel Kashkari painted a gloomy picture of nine million Americans out of work. Markets are focusing on the growing voices of the hawks. Returns on 10-year Treasury yields have risen to 1.24%, adding to dollar strength.

All eyes are on July's Nonfarm Payrolls report, which is projected to show an increase of 870,000 jobs. Strong figures would send the dollar higher on expectations that the Fed would have to act sooner than later, while a disappointment would weigh on the greenback. Momentum is with the dollar, and even a small miss could keep it underpinned.

Support awaits at the daily low of 1.1820. It is followed by the swing low of 1.1775 recorded last week and then by the July low of 1.1750. Resistance is at 1.1860, which was the peak of a recovery attempt this week. It is followed by 1.1910, the July high, and then by 1.1945.



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