On Monday, the final trading day in October, the market major is declining, balancing near 0.9940. Active growth of the instrument stopped right after the European Central Bank last week lifted the interest rate to 2.00% annual. This was just the decision know long before, so on facts investors just took the profit. The main event of this week will be the meeting of the US Federal Reserve System. The is hardly any doubt that the interest rate will grow by 75 base points to 4.00% annual.
Much depends on the comments of the Fed: investors need to understand whether the rate will keep growing at such speed. EUR/USD volatility will grow on Wednesday.
On H4, the market performed a wave of growth to 1.0090. Today the market continues developing a correction. The level of 0.770 is likely to be reached. Then a wave of growth may start for 0.9920. Practically, a consolidation range is likely to form between these two levels. With an escape upwards, another structure of growth is likely to develop to 1.0440. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD: its signal line is under zero and keeps going down to new lows.
On H1, EUR/USD has completed a structure of a wave of decline to 0.9930. At the moment, the market has formed a consolidation area above it. We expect an escape downwards and a decline to 0.9766. After this level is reached, a link of growth might develop to 0.9930, from where the trend may continue to 1.0440. Technically, the scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator: its signal line is headed downwards, to 50. Upon breaking this away, the trend should continue to 20.
