On Wednesday, the market major remains balanced. The current quote is 1.0350. Yesterday the macroeconomic calendar started coming back to life, step by step. The US issued a Conference Board CCI report for November. The index had fallen to 100.2 points from 102.2 points previously. The forecast had been weaker, suggesting a decline to 100.0. There is nothing surprising to it. Businesses and consumers are becoming less active and confident while loans are becoming more expensive, and the financial load on everybody without an exception is growing.
Today the market is focused on the European and American statistics alike. The EU is publishing a prelim inflation report for November. Last month, we saw the high of 10.6% y/y; this time, the index is expected to have dropped to 10.4% y/y. This is hardly a reason for joy because the trend remains in force. Base inflation should have remained at 5.0% y/y. For the EUR, such colossal inflation load is a serious stress.
However, it is not at all decided that the ECB will raise the interest rate by 75 base points or more at the December meeting to do something with the inflation. The US will issue a new GDP assessment for Q3, and it might have grown to 2.8% from 2.6% earlier. Moreover, the ADP NFP for November are due. This will be the first one in the row of employment market reports, and it is going to be informative. The NFP is expected to have grown by 196 thousand upon growing by 239 thousand previously. Strong statistics will support the USD.
