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ECB To Keep Monetary Policy Unchanged

7 March 2019

The U.S. dollar maintained the bullish momentum although the pace of gains was somewhat smaller. On the economic front, the data from the eurozone was relatively quiet.

NY Trading Session

The NY trading session saw the February private payrolls rising just 183k. This was below estimates of a 190k increase. The previous month’s payrolls were revised to 300k. The balance of trade figures showed that the U.S. posted a trade definition of $59 billion for December. This was higher than November’s deficit of $50.3 billion. Excluding the services sector, the trade deficit rose 10% to $891.25 billion, the largest on record so far. The NY trading session will see Fed Member, Brainard speaking


The Bank of Canada held its monetary policy meeting last week. As widely expected, the central bank left interest rates unchanged. In fact, the BOC issued a rather dovish outlook on the global economy and the risks to Canada’s growth. Following the release of the interest rate decision, the Ivey PMI report showed that the index eased to 50.6, missing estimates of an increase to 55.1.


The economic data from Australia continues with the Asian trading session showing that retail sales rose 0.1%. Economists forecast that retail sales would rise 0.3% on the month after declining 0.4% previously. Trade balance figures were also released, as the data showed trade balance expanding to 4.5 billion, up from 3.77 billion previously.


The European trading session will see the release of Switzerland’s unemployment data. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 2.4%. The eurozone’s final fourth-quarter GDP report will be coming out. Economists forecast no change to the GDP, maintaining the confirmed 0.2% quarterly growth rate. We can expect the eurozone’s final employment change for the quarter to show a 0.3% increase as previously forecast.

The ECB’s monetary policy meeting will be the main highlight for today. The central bank is not expected to make any major changes to its monetary policy. However, there is speculation that the central bank could be dovish in its forward guidance as it contemplates relaunching the TLTRO program.

EURUSD Intraday Analysis

EURUSD (1.1304): The EURUSD currency pair traded below the support area of the 1.1327 – 1.1309 region. Price action has been muted as the lower support level near 1.1256 remains a key target to the downside. Failure to extend the declines could keep the common currency trading flat near the support area. If there is a rebound to the upside, then the EURUSD could push higher to extend the gains toward the previous highs at the 1.1381 region. This would be followed by a move toward the main resistance area of 1.1435.

USDJPY Intraday Analysis

USDJPY (111.68): The USDJPY currency pair has stalled the upside momentum. Price action has failed to post any significant gains. However, we could expect the trend to resume in the near term. This would push the USDJPY to test the next main target at 112.50. Failure to maintain the bullish trend could see the USDJPY easing back to test the breached resistance level at 111.21 where support could be firmly established. This would still see the USDJPY maintaining the upside bias as a result.

XAUUSD Intraday Analysis

XAUUSD (1287.42): Gold prices settled into a doji pattern for the last two daily sessions. This pattern forms just above the support level at 1281.15. The flat price action is likely to see either the bearish trend resuming, which would mean that price will have to break past the support level at 1281.15, or a retracement. The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement comes near the resistance level that is likely to be tested at the 1306 – 1304 region while a deeper retracement could mean that gold prices will test the next resistance level at the 1321 – 1318 region.

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