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Gold faces the calm before the storm


21 January 2020

The gold price is likely to jump a further 20 percent this year if geopolitical tensions, such as the situation currently between Iran and the US flare up again according to one analyst.

The precious metal has already surged more than $100 since the start of the year after US President Donald Trump’s decision to kill the commander of Iran's Quds Force Qassem Soleimani which lead to a huge escalation of hostilities in the middle east and as a result left gold benefiting as a safe haven

Trump may also feel emboldened by the fact that the US has basically become self-sufficient when it comes to oil so and issues with the supply are unlikely to affect the US directly which may give Trump added leverage.

"The rally we've seen is based on geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran. We need to see also the reasons behind Trump's approach when it comes to Iran … In September, the U.S. ended up a positive net exporter of oil for the first time in history. That gives you a reason why Trump thinks he is not affected by the tensions even though the rest of the world is affected," said Goldex CEO and founder Sylvia Carrasco

Mrs Carrasco also noted that at current prices, gold is around fair value but should anything erupt, the price is bound to surge higher.

Last year, I said that the perfect storm was forming and I think I would use this phrase again. The perfect storm is now happening," Carrasco noted. "Gold should be around $1,600 if nothing else crazy happens. At this moment in time, I can see gold between the $1,500 and the $2,000 mark during 2020." She said

Gold is also poised to benefit on the back of a weaker US dollar which is likely to be caused by the ever increasing corporate and government debt in the US and the possibility that the US Federal Reserve may cut interest rates further in order to stimulate the economy.

"We've been talking about debt for years, how corporate debt and government debt continues to increase. More debt effectively means a potentially weaker U.S. dollar. The moment the U.S. dollar is weak, where do you go? The only safe place is gold. And I think we are going to be seeing a weakening dollar as the year continues," Carrasco added.

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