Day Ahead: 3 Things to Watch for July 1

1 July, 2020

Maybe 2020 isn’t so bad after all: TheDow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 had their best quarters since 1987, 1998 and 2001, respectively. 

Tech stocks helped prop markets up again, as Dr. Anthony Fauci told Congress that new coronavirus infections could increase to 100,000 a day from 40,000 daily cases now. Fauci, the top infectious disease expert at the National Institutes of Health, said infections have risen because some places are reopening too quickly and people are not following guidelines.  

In testimony before the House Financial Services Committee earlier Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said a second wave of the coronavirus outbreak could "force government and force people to withdraw again from economic activity” and "undermine public confidence, which is what we need to get back to lots of economic activity." 

Cases in the U.S rose by at least 43% and deaths increased by 20%, a Reuters analysis on Tuesday showed.

In better news, FedEx (NYSE:FDX) rose after the close on fourth quarter results that beat forecasts, including earnings per share of $2.53 on revenue of $17.4 billion. Analysts polled by anticipated EPS of $1.70 on revenue of $16.45 billion.

FedEx shares are down 7% from the beginning of the year, under-performing the S&P 500, which is down 4.06% year to date.

Here are three things that could affect markets tomorrow.

Jobs and Manufacturing In Focus

Payrolls processor ADP will release its monthly report on hiring in the U.S. economy at 8:15 AM ET (1215 GMT). Analysts expect the economy to have created 3 million jobs, after April and May numbers showed that more than 21 million jobs were lost.

The ISM manufacturing index due out at 10:00 AM ET (1400 GMT) is expected to rebound sharply, but even if it rises back to the 50 level that separates growth from contraction, the level of activity will still be down sharply from where it was at the start of the year.

Government data on crude oil inventories is due out at 10:30 AM ET (1430 GMT) and FOMC Meeting Minutes come out at 2:00 PM ET (1800 GMT).

Have We Been Drinking More in Quarantine? 

Constellation Brands Inc (NYSE:STZ) is set to report fiscal first quarter earnings before the market opens. The maker of Corona (the beer) has a consensus EPS estimate of $2.04 (-7.7% Y/Y) and a consensus revenue estimate of $1.97 billion (-6.2% Y/Y), according to Seeking Alpha. Shares are up 63% after hitting a 2020 low in March. Constellation has been divesting of brands over the past few months. Last week, the company agreed to sell Paul Masson Grande Amber Brandy to Sazerac Company, Inc., for $255 million. 

Bubbly water maker FIZZ also reports on July 1, post-market. National Beverage (NASDAQ:FIZZ) Corp. is expected to report lower revenue for the fiscal third quarter compared to a year earlier, according to Zacks Equity Research. The maker of multi-flavored La Croix sparkling water should post EPS of 50 cents, down 11% year-on-year. Shares are up almost 20% in 2020.

General Mills (NYSE:GIS) and Macy’s Inc (NYSE:M) also report before the market opens.

The consensus EPS estimate for General Mills is $1.06, up 28% compared to a year earlier, and revenue up 20% to $4.98 billion, according to Seeking Alpha. Shares are up about 17% this year.

Earlier this month, Macy’s provided preliminary sales and earnings results for the first quarter of 2020. Macy’s estimated first-quarter sales down about 45%, to $3.02 billion from $5.5 billion a year ago. Shares are down about 60% for 2020. 

Postmates Eyeing IPO as Uber Looks for a Bite 

Postmates Inc revived plans for an initial public offering, Reuters reported, citing people familiar with the matter. Thanks to stay-at-home mandates, though, consumers have been ordering out more and more, attracting suitors including Uber Technologies (NYSE:UBER) and a so-called blank-check acquisition vehicle led by investment banker Michael Klein.

Earlier in June, Just Eat Takeaway (AS:TKWY) agreed to buy GrubHub (NYSE:GRUB) in a $7.3 billion deal.   

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