Gold stabilized in the past daily sessions with traders remaining in a wait and see position as the market’s focus turns to new matters and events. Anyone following the gold market knows that the precious metal could move abruptly and unexpectedly in any direction undertaking large movements without notice. This report will be focusing on the current market information that could affect Gold’s price but also upcoming economic data that may motivate traders to take action. Our technical analysis at the end will give us a more in depth view of the price action.
Our aim is to give a descriptive and informative fundamental and technical analysis.At the moment the main focus of the market turns to the vaccination process and the circumstances surrounding the ongoing pandemic. Gold had reacted significantly to the virus and its effects in the past year when it climbed to new all-time high levels.
Since then the correction lower has been evident, yet the subject continues to create volatility for Gold in our opinion. In the past days it was confirmed that the US has already provided over 110M doses of covid-19 vaccines to people. This is a figure that is expected to increase substantially in the following months and could help the economy’s recovery process speed up. This is not the case for all countries however. In Europe the vaccination process continues to be moving on a rather slow pace. In the past days, headlines of a dispute between the EU and the UK surfaced with the media labeling the matter as a vaccine war.
We must note Europe is currently seeing a third wave of increased cases.Furthermore a swarm of media reports has hit the scene over AstraZeneca’s vaccine and its safety. Some say the vaccine is safe some say this is not the case. Yet the overall confusion over the subject has already hit the public. We believe the global vaccination process is being tested at the moment and anything unexpected that could disrupt it, could create a major setback to the global health system and the global economy. In this case we would expect Gold traders to react accordingly and we may see a soaring Gold price.
Overall the vaccination process remains a very sensitive matter at this point.Moving to the USD and its relationship with Gold’s price. We can confirm the USD is stronger compared to our last week’s report according to the Dollar Index which monitors the greenbacks strength against other currencies. But the same can be said for Gold, as its price has risen since last week.
Thus the correlation of the two seems to be strong and positive. We must note that today in the US session, Fed Chair Jerome Powel is expected to give a virtual testimony on coronavirus aid, relief, and the Economic Security Act. Traders will be on the watch thus caution is advised.Finally, in the next days we have a plethora of financial releases that Gold traders can use as a strategy foundation. On Wednesday we get the Preliminary PMI readings for March from Australia, Japan, UK, Eurozone, Germany, France and the US. The combination of all being released on the same day could provide extra volatility for the precious metal. On the 24th we also get the US Durable Goods figure for February while on the 25th we get the weekly initial jobless claims figure. On the 26th we get the US Consumption Adjusted and the University of Michigan Sentiment Final for March.
XAU/USD continues to trade in a sideways motion between our (R1) 1755 resistance level and the (S1) 1720 support barrier for the past 10 days. If the precious metal is undertaken by selling interest then below the (S1) we have noted the (S2) 1700 round number level that was briefly reached on March 12th. Our (S2) is also a psychological threshold for traders and its strength could determine what traders will do next. Yet, lower we have also noted the (S3) 1680 barrier which is also imminent as it is the lowest point reached so far in 2021 for Gold.
In the opposite direction, if an uptrend arises and Gold surpasses the (R1) the road could be set for the (R2) 1775 to become a target. Even higher the (R3) 1795 hurdle could be noted if the bulls are motivated to keep their positions. Yet both the (R2) and the (R3) are levels last seen in February and are not relevant to recent price action. The RSI indicator below our chart is currently running nearby the 50 line implying traders maybe unsure of the price direction they should take at the moments. This could also be perceived as a sign of patience for traders as a sudden move could provide opportunities not seen previously.