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Caution ahead of FED


27 April 2021

The short term virus outlook remains difficult in places such as India, which is keeping a lid on growth expectations near term, although looking ahead, confidence that the global recovery will rebound later in the year remains intact. Central banks meanwhile seem successful in keeping a lid on reflation trades for now, although the risk is that with monetary policy failing to take the foot off the accelerator, they will add to bubbles and over-valuations that could be difficult to correct smoothly.

The BoJ already announced steady policy settings and lifted the growth forecast slightly overnight, while in Europe, the Swedish Riksbank is expected to do the same and the Fed, which begins its 2-day meeting today, is also likely to do the same. Meanwhile, China’s anti-trust crackdown has also come into focus again.

10-year Treasury yields are up 0.9 bp at 1.58%, still firmly below recent highs. JGB rates lifted 0.9 bp to 0.069%. Stock markets across the region traded cautiously. JPN225 lost -0.3%. The ASX dropped nearly 1%, while Hang Seng and CSI 300 are currently up. GER30 and UK100 futures are fractionally lower, while US futures are posting gains of around 0.2%. In FX markets the Yen was under pressure and USDJPY lifted to 108.40. The AUD and NZD fell as caution reined in markets ahead of the Fed. The EUR fell to 1.2064, while GBP is unchanged. USOIL is trading at $62.46 per barrel. JPMorgan Chase JPM.N is planning to offer a managed bitcoin fund. BTC holds at 53.5K

Today – The FOMC kicks off its 2-day meeting today, while data releases in Europe are thin on the ground, but include the UK CBI retailing survey. The heavy earnings slate will be the focus today, featuring Microsoft, Alphabet, Visa, Novartis, Eli Lilly, Texas Instruments, UPS, Amgen, Starbucks, Raytheon, HSBC, 3M, AMD, BP, Mondelez, Chubb, Sherwin-Williams,  Corning, ADM, Yum China, Synchrony Financial, PulteGroup, Hasbro, Invesco, and Hubbell.

Biggest (FX) Mover @ 07:30 GMT + 13.6%) – Ripple reverses 6-day drift, Cryptos were supported by Musk and Tesla – the firm said it did sell some of the crypto (in its Q1 earnings call) but only as ‘proof of concept’ the coin could be used in place of cash and also on reports that JPMorgan Chase JPM.N is planning to offer a managed Bitcoin fund.

In the 1-hour chart, momentum is rising higher with fast MAs aligned higher, while RSI is at 71 with MACD extending northwards again. ATR (H1) at 0.06176 & ATR (D) at 0.3011.

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