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How to Start the Week: Analytics and Forecasts


19 July 2021

Japan’s exports likely soared in June thanks to robust global demand for machinery and technology-related goods and as shipments rebounded sharply from last year’s pandemic-induced slump, a Reuters poll showed on Friday. Exports jumped 46.2% in June from a year earlier, the fourth straight month of double-digit gains, with the annual export growth rate largely skewed by a COVID-driven plunge in June 2020. Export growth has remained strong even as a global chip shortage has weighed on Japan’s car output and shipments.

Two top Bank of England officials surprised investors this week by saying the time might be nearing for the British central bank to rein in the huge stimulus program it has used to steer the economy through the coronavirus crisis. With activity bouncing back strongly, and inflation rising faster than expected, Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden said on Wednesday that the BoE might start to consider tightening monetary policy sooner than he previously thought.

The Bank of Japan cut this fiscal year’s growth forecast on Friday as new emergency curbs to combat the COVID-19 pandemic hurt consumption, reinforcing expectations that it will lag global counterparts in dialing back its massive stimulus. With monetary policy in a holding pattern, the BOJ edged closer to uncharted territory by laying out details of a new scheme aimed at funding activities for combating climate change. The central bank also released a list of other steps it will take on climate change, including a plan to start buying green bonds using its small pool of foreign reserves.

European car registrations surged in June, rising for the fourth month in a row, industry data showed on Friday, as sales continued to recover from the low level reported last year when coronavirus restrictions shut car dealerships across Europe. New passenger car registrations rose by 13.3% year-on-year to 1,282,503 vehicles in the European Union, Britain and the countries of the European Free Trade Association (EFTA), figures from the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA) showed.

The U.S. President Biden administration on Friday issued an advisory to warn U.S. businesses about risks to their operations and activities in Hong Kong after China’s imposition of a new national security law there last year. The advisory from the departments of State, Treasury Commerce, and Homeland Security warns businesses in Hong Kong that they are subject to the territory’s laws, including the national security law, under which foreign nationals, including one U.S. citizen, have been arrested.

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