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Us Dollar Index to reach new highs above 93.50 as taper talk increases


5 August 2021

The US dollar looks quite solid. In the view of economists at Westpac, US Dollar Index (DXY) dips are likely limited to 91.5-92.0 and see scope for fresh highs beyond 93.50 as taper talk rises to a crescendo in Q3.

FED vice chair Clarida added heft in favour of scaling back stimulus

Fed Vice Chair Clarida added serious heft to the growing chorus of centrist leaning FOMC members in favour of scaling back stimulus, joining Waller, Daly and Bullard in recent weeks. Evidence has been building that peak US rebound momentum is in the rear-view mirror. But fresh all-time cycle high for the services ISM suggest that those parts most heavily battered by covid are still finding fresh gears. The earlier strong vaccine drive leaves ongoing US recovery momentum more secure than vaccine laggards.

A July payrolls print in the 600-900K range, and another strong CPI next week will likely keep Jackson Hole and September FOMC taper announcement timelines intact.

DXY should continue to find support in the 91.5-92.0 area and as taper talk rises to a crescendo in Q3 could see new highs beyond 93.50.”

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