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Gold and Silver looking into the abyss


17 September 2021

Strong US data revived bets on an imminent QE rollback from the Fed, supporting the dollar and causing bond yields to rise. The news triggered a more than 2% plunge in gold prices, four times the amplitude of the dollar’s rise against a basket of major currencies. Silver plunged from levels near $24 at one point to $22.6, more than 5.5%, at the lower end of its trading range since last July. Despite the larger drop from the peak (-23%), Silver has been moving sideways all this time, fluctuating widely between $29 and $23.

Downward trend for Gold since peak in August 2020

Gold’s pullback from the highs is less intense in percentage terms (only 15%), but a downtrend has formed on the chart here with a sequence of lower peaks as the bears take control from lower levels. The downtrend in Gold is supporting by solid US data pushing the moment of the Fed’s key rate hike ever closer.

Fundamentally, the current situation replicates 2014 when the FOMC was similarly on the verge of winding down balance sheet purchases. By the first public hints of Fed plans in April 2013, Gold had already sold off for six months. Subsequently, the price of Gold fell for another two and a half years, right up to the date of the Fed’s key rate hike.

#source

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