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The central banks are out of the way for now


21 December 2021 Written by Andria Pichidi  HF Markets Analyst Andria Pichidi

The central banks are out of the way for now, after confirming that they are moving out of crisis modes and that omicron won’t prevent a gradual withdrawal of support. The clarity on rate hikes and central bank support was supportive for the markets, and it is expected to remain supportive for a while especially in Eurozone and the US. Bigger picture, the banks’ announcements this week injected some certainty into the policy outlook, which overall should remain positive for the equity market.

In the meantime, the economic calendar ahead includes GDP releases from the UK and the US, Retail sales from the UK and Canada and US Durable goods.

Monday – 20 December 2021

PBoC Interest Rate Decision (CNY, GMT 01:30) – The People’s Bank of China in its latest report, announced that they will take measures, including purchases of foreign exchange from banks and more quotas for outbound investments, implying that authorities have grown less comfortable with the yuan’s strength and attempted to slow its rapid rise.

Tuesday – 21 December 2021

Wednesday – 22 December 2021

Thursday – 23 December 2021

Durable Goods & Personal Income/Consumption (USD, GMT 13:30) – Durable goods orders are expected to grow 2.5% in November with a 7.5% transportation orders bounce, after a -0.4% headline drop in October that included a -2.6% transportation orders decline.

Michigan Consumer Sentiment & New Home Sales (USD, GMT 15:00) – Michigan sentiment bounce to 70.4 from a 10-year low of 67.4 in November but a higher 71.7 in October, leaving the index just above the prior 10-year low of 70.3 in August.

New Home sales are anticipated at 4.7% in November. The sales rate posted a 6-month stretch through October below the high from the last cycle of 756k in January of 2020, but an 11-month stretch before that of overshoots that all marked the highest rates since a 778k figure back in July of 2007. We’re seeing rapid growth in demand for new homes in 2021. Construction has lagged sales, and the market is heavily inventory-constrained. A steady climb is expected in starts and completions into 2022 in the face of unprecedented home demand, though the sector is pressing against capacity constraints, and growth in sales beyond lofty late-2020 levels has proven hard to sustain.

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