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Back from the brink?


16 February 2022 Written by Stuart Cowell  HF Markets Head Market Analyst Stuart Cowell

Stock markets rallied into close (2.5%-1.5%). USD & JPY cool, Gold cooled too from 8-month highs and Oil dipped to $90.00. 2yr-10yr Yields widened but both remain elevated. Asian markets rallied (Nikkei +2.2%) but have cooled into close. USD (USDIndex 95.85) cools from Monday high at 96.40. US Yields 10-yr closed back over 2.00% at 2.045 trades at 1.997%, 2-yrs remain elevated.   

Overnight 

CNY Inflation slips, CPI down to 0.9% (expectations were 1.0%) from 1.5% and PPI down from record 10.3% to 9.1% (9.5% expected). UK Inflation hotter than expected  CPI 5.5% vs 5.4%, CORE at 4.4% vs 4.3% – it’s only a tick but its above expectations, details may show some better news, but Oil & Petrol prices still rising and strong wage inflation yesterday too. BoE still see inflation topping in April, but will add pressure for BoE to act again. – Old fashioned RPI now at 7.8% vs 7.4% too.

European Open

The March 10-year Bund future is up 17 ticks, outperforming versus US futures, as the selloff in bonds is coming to an end. DAX and FTSE 100 are still posting gains of 0.5% and 0.3% respectively. CAD CPI; EZ Industrial Production, US Retail Sales, FOMC Minutes, EarningsHeineken, Carrefour; Barrick Gold, Garmin, Shopify, NVIDIA.

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.33%) The key Risk sensitive pair recovers from 81.50 lows Monday back to 83.00 now. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram significantly above 0 line, RSI 66.25 & rising, H1 ATR 0.115 Daily ATR 0.818.

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