The French Presidential Election poses weekend risk for the Euro, inflation fears and some divergent CB policies continuing to underpin sentiment. The final week of April has some key data releases topped by the rate decision from the BOJ supported by US GDP, the Fed’s favourite inflation measure, the PCE Price Index and Durable Goods. The week also sees Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta & Microsoft (along with many more corporations) report as the Q1 Earnings Season continues in full flow.
Monday – 25 April 2022
- German ifo Business Climate (EUR, GMT 08:00) – Last month the data touched a low at 90.1 not seen since January 2021 – has the German business climate improved in March? Expectations are for a move higher to 94.2 but a disappointing outlook could prevail.
BOC Gov Macklem Speaks (CAD, GMT 15:00) – Due to testify, along with Senior Deputy Governor Rogers before the House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance, in Ontario.
Tuesday – 26 April 2022
- CB Consumer Confidence (USD, GMT 14:00) – Consumer confidence is expected to fall to 106.0 from 107.2 in March, versus a 12-month low of 105.7 in February. Expectations are for the present situation index to slip to 146.4 from 153.0 in March. The expectations index is expected to edge up to 80.0 from an 8-year low of 76.6.
- Durable Goods (USD, GMT 12:30) – Durable goods orders are expected to grow 1.0% in March with a 2.0% transportation orders rise, after a -2.1% headline decrease in February that included a -5.3% transportation orders drop. Durable orders ex-transportation is pegged to rise 0.5%, after a -0.6% February drop.
- Earnings From Microsoft, Alphabet, Visa (from GMT 20:05)
Wednesday – 27 April 2022
- AUD Consumer Price Index (AUD, GMT 01:30) Annual Inflation in Australia is currently running at 3.5% the monthly data today is expected to trim that significantly to 2.0%. with the quarterly figure falling to 0.7% from 1.0% and the headline rate moving down from 1.3% to 0.5%.
- Pending Home Sales (USD, GMT 14:00) last weeks Existing Home Sales slipped to 5.77m from 5.93m however, the Pending Home Sales data is more forward looking as a contract is signed several weeks before the home is counted as sold. So, will this also show some weakness?
- Earnings From Meta, (FB) (from GMT 20:05)
Thursday – 28 April 2022
- BOJ Outlook Report + Monetary Policy Statement (JPY, GMT 02:30) – The BoJ announced that it will buy an unlimited amount of bonds at a fixed rate, on February 14 in a bid to stop upward pressure on interest rates and re-affirm its commitment to an accommodative policy stance. The BoJ has been opting out of the general move towards policy normalisation that has become the mantra at many central banks and BoJ’s Kuroda has been adamant that for Japan there is still the need to keep easing. But with the Yen at 20-year lows and Yields on JGB’s spiking can this be maintained?
- Advanced GDP (USD, GMT 01:30) – Expectations are for a 0.5% U.S. Q1 GDP growth pace led by solid growth in both business and residential investment that we peg at 9.9% and 7.0% respectively, and a solid 3.4% climb for real consumption. Headline growth was likely restrained by an estimated -$79 bln Q1 inventory subtraction after a huge $259.9 bln addition in Q4 that left a lofty $193.2 bln accumulation rate.
Friday – 29 April 2022
- Core PCE Price Index (USD, GMT 12:30) – Expectations are for a decline for the M/m figure from 0.4% to 0.3%, adding to the new mantra of “peak inflation” is here or at least very close. It is likely to be too early to start to assume peak inflation has indeed been seen in the Spring of 2022. Income and spending data could also show that this rise in inflation is far from over.