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S&P500, breakout or fade?


20 July 2022

Bulls got excited as the S&P 500 broke out from its downtrend. But the question is - can it hold? I think the S&P500 was due an oversold bounce as we began to run out of sellers and cash positions were incredibly elevated due to recessionary fears. A softer dollar, anticipation of buybacks beginning Friday and emboldened animal spirits helped provide a steady tailwind for the bulls to have a go.

However, a stronger dollar and risk-off sentiment this morning after reports hit the wires that Russia plans to annex further territory within Ukraine. Can Tesla's earnings this evening pull the headline index higher, after Apple's hiring freeze update soured sentiment.

Technically, price is above its 50-day SMA and the downtrend line - which are good signs, however, the RSI is rolling over from just shy of 60. It remains above 50 for now which keeps the bias of the uptrend intact. The 4k level on the upside would be important whereas 3.9-3.8k on the downside would be good to keep an eye on. 

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